Mithrandir Metrics
Mithrandir+ / v1.0 / production

SEAGER+ plate discipline index.

A 100-anchored plate-discipline index built from rate-based Selection Tendency minus Hittable Pitches Taken.

Next-year BB% r
0.648
Next-year chase r
-0.692
Next-year ISO r
0.274
Version v1.0 Status production Snapshot 2026-06-12
Definition / formula

2024 Statcast pitch-event data, using public SEAGER-inspired swing/take xRV by count and normalized location.

SEAGER+ = 100 + z(Selection Tendency - Hittable Pitches Taken) * 10
Method note

The original implementation used a run-value average and produced ISO r 0.023.

Method note

A methodology audit restored rate-based ST - HPT and moved ISO r to 0.274.

Method note

Alternative-target diagnostics revealed the strongest signal is plate discipline: BB% r 0.648 and chase-rate r -0.692.

Validation / what it does not measure
Next-year BB% r 0.648 Next-year chase r -0.692 Next-year ISO r 0.274
Does not measure

It is not promoted as a primary power predictor; ISO correlation missed the original 0.300 gate by 0.026.

Does not measure

It does not yet include called-strike probability weighting or bat-tracking quality on correct swings.

Top 20 / current cached snapshot
Rank Player Metric Sample Status
1 McGonigle, Kevin 115 257 qualified
2 Vargas, Miguel 115 253 qualified
3 Kurtz, Nick 113 266 qualified
4 Torkelson, Spencer 112 228 qualified
5 Swanson, Dansby 111 222 qualified
6 Tucker, Kyle 111 250 qualified
7 Ward, Taylor 111 269 qualified
8 Jensen, Carter 111 208 qualified
9 Trout, Mike 111 264 qualified
10 DeLauter, Chase 110 232 qualified
11 Collins, Isaac 110 204 qualified
12 Reynolds, Bryan 110 255 qualified
13 Acuña Jr.., Ronald 110 205 qualified
14 Wood, James 109 282 qualified
15 Freeman, Freddie 109 253 qualified
16 Grisham, Trent 109 228 qualified
17 Greene, Riley 109 250 qualified
18 Murakami, Munetaka 109 237 qualified
19 Judge, Aaron 109 247 qualified
20 Hicks, Liam 109 222 qualified