Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Jorbit Vivas

3B · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 9", 171 lb · Age 25

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position 3B Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2025666910.161.266.250.516
2026210214330.236.319.330.649
2 Seasons276275240.218.306.311.617
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
17
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
30
Defense3 metrics
52
Speed1 metrics
40
Plate skills12 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.293
xwOBA current pace0.297
xwOBA rolling p500.295
Observed weight50%
xwOBA
0.255 0.274 0.295 0.316 0.335
wOBA
0.292 0.311 0.332 0.354 0.373
ISO
0.059 0.080 0.103 0.126 0.146
K%
13.6% 15.9% 18.5% 21.0% 23.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.7%
19
Exit velocity82.7
6
Hard-hit%25.8%
8 -23 vs proj
xBA0.287
19
xSLG0.387
9
xwOBA0.297
40 -16 vs proj
BB%9.1%
56 +25 vs proj
Bat speed67.0
20
K%13.7%
90 +44 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength80.0 · 3B
9
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
77
Range Runs1.9 · 3B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · 3B
40
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.8% · rebadged research
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 15.4% · rebadged research
97
Correct Decisions73.4% · rebadged research
95
Curveball Stuff+94
0
Mithrandir Stuff+83
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
79
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
24
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
33
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
68
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351 · validated
27
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Vivas, Jorbit · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.297 2026-07-05: 0.3032026-07-06: 0.3032026-07-07: 0.3012026-07-08: 0.3012026-07-09: 0.3012026-07-10: 0.3042026-07-11: 0.3042026-07-12: 0.3012026-07-13: 0.3012026-07-14: 0.2972026-07-15: 0.2972026-07-16: 0.297 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 83%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Vivas, Jorbit · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 47%47%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 16%16%Zone contact: 93%93%Contact: 84%84%Hard hit: 26%26% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vivas, Jorbit · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 83.3%Slider: 16.7% CU83% · 44 mphprimary pitch CU 83%SL 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vivas, Jorbit · 2026 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ Curveball: 83% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 43.9 mphCU44 mphSlider: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 9″ drop, 46.0 mphSL46 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 83.3% 10 94 limited sample
SL 16.7% 2 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height5' 9"
Weight171 lb
Debut2025-05-02
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.015
wOBA Δ+0.020

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.1σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.332
xwOBA (deserved)0.297

Vivas’s wOBA sits at 0.332, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.297 — a gap of 0.036, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 219 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →
PlayerSimilarityAgrees onOpen
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Palacios, Richie TB · L 0.75 Sprint speedIsolated power Player · Projection
McNeil, Jeff ATH · L 0.68 Pull rateIn-zone contact Player · Projection
McKinstry, Zach DET · L 0.68 Isolated powerPull rate Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-06-23Impact contact was the main driver
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.312 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection
2026-04-17 vs SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-1
2026-04-15 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E1-3 | K
2026-04-14 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 1 E1-3 | HBP, K
2026-04-13 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E1-3 | 2B, BB, R
2026-04-12 @ MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E1-3