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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-27 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-27
102 matched props 54 unmatched
Older: 2026-09-26

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 102
Grouped Pitchers 14
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 54
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-27 | Raw sportsbook rows: 102 | Grouped pitcher entries: 14 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-27/strikeout_edges_2026-09-27.json
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs MIN | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.86
Strongest Gap Over +21.58%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +21.58% / Under gap --
Over +21.58%
FanDuel
6.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +20.64% / Under gap --
Over +20.64%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +18.84% / Under gap -24.92%
Over +18.84%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +18.84% / Under gap -24.92%
Over +18.84%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +16.79% / Under gap -23.90%
Over +16.79%
DraftKings
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap +16.07% / Under gap -22.09%
Over +16.07%
FanDuel
3.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap +9.00% / Under gap --
Over +9.00%
FanDuel
2.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap +2.31% / Under gap --
Over +2.31%
Model O 51.0% | U 49.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.0
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs MIL | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.19
Strongest Gap Under +17.80%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -168 / U +132
Over gap -23.59% / Under gap +17.80%
Under +17.80%
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -22.44% / Under gap +15.45%
Under +15.45%
Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.1
Max Scherzer headshot

Max Scherzer
TOR vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.15
Strongest Gap Under +16.39%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -23.50% / Under gap +16.39%
Under +16.39%
DraftKings
5.5
O +115 / U -147
Over gap -21.23% / Under gap +15.21%
Under +15.21%
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -20.17% / Under gap +14.09%
Under +14.09%
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -20.17% / Under gap +14.09%
Under +14.09%
FanDuel
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -8.43% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -14.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -21.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -26.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -28.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.3% | U 74.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.4
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs TB | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 6.86
Strongest Gap Over +13.22%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +13.22% / Under gap --
Over +13.22%
FanDuel
8.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +13.22% / Under gap --
Over +13.22%
FanDuel
6.5
O +144 / U --
Over gap +9.66% / Under gap --
Over +9.66%
DraftKings
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap +4.45% / Under gap -10.53%
Over +4.45%
FanDuel
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +4.12% / Under gap -10.10%
Over +4.12%
FanDuel
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +4.12% / Under gap -10.10%
Over +4.12%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap +3.02% / Under gap -10.31%
Over +3.02%
FanDuel
4.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -0.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -3.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -3.79% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.2% | U 61.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.8
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs WSH | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 4.95
Strongest Gap Under +12.97%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -18.99% / Under gap +12.97%
Under +12.97%
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -18.99% / Under gap +12.97%
Under +12.97%
DraftKings
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -18.61% / Under gap +12.47%
Under +12.47%
BetMGM
5.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -18.03% / Under gap +11.25%
Under +11.25%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap -4.61% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +310 / U --
Over gap -8.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -14.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap -15.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -20.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -23.90% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.5% | U 62.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.9
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs CWS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.71
Strongest Gap Under +9.72%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -16.83% / Under gap +9.72%
Under +9.72%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -12.69% / Under gap +6.81%
Under +6.81%
DraftKings
4.5
O +124 / U -159
Over gap -12.69% / Under gap +6.66%
Under +6.66%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap -12.69% / Under gap +6.51%
Under +6.51%
FanDuel
6.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -4.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -9.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -17.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -18.98% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.9% | U 68.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.5
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs STL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.22
Strongest Gap Under +8.99%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -16.10% / Under gap +8.99%
Under +8.99%
DraftKings
6.5
O -124 / U -103
Over gap -13.13% / Under gap +7.03%
Under +7.03%
FanDuel
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -10.38% / Under gap +4.28%
Under +4.28%
FanDuel
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -10.38% / Under gap +4.28%
Under +4.28%
FanDuel
8.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -1.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap -6.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -13.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -16.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -17.19% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 42.2% | U 57.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.3
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs LAA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.77
Strongest Gap Under +7.34%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -14.12% / Under gap +7.34%
Under +7.34%
FanDuel
6.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -12.92% / Under gap +7.03%
Under +7.03%
FanDuel
6.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -12.92% / Under gap +7.03%
Under +7.03%
DraftKings
7.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -9.63% / Under gap +3.55%
Under +3.55%
FanDuel
8.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -3.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +118 / U --
Over gap -8.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -11.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -16.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -410 / U --
Over gap -17.64% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.1% | U 62.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.8
Yusei Kikuchi headshot

Yusei Kikuchi
LAA vs SEA | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.09
Strongest Gap Over +3.24%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +3.24% / Under gap --
Over +3.24%
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +1.74% / Under gap --
Over +1.74%
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -7.95% / Under gap +0.33%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -5.65% / Under gap -0.43%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -5.65% / Under gap -0.43%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -4.97% / Under gap -0.91%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap -2.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -8.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -410 / U --
Over gap -9.56% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.9% | U 83.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.3
Dean Kremer headshot

Dean Kremer
MIN vs TEX | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.86
Strongest Gap Under +2.69%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap -8.72% / Under gap +2.69%
Under +2.69%
FanDuel
6.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +2.40% / Under gap --
Over +2.40%
FanDuel
5.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap -0.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -2.05% / Under gap -4.05%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -2.05% / Under gap -4.05%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -2.05% / Under gap -4.93%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -8.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -8.35% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 51.4% | U 48.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.7
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs ATL | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 3.44
Strongest Gap Under +2.42%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -110 / U -115
Over gap -8.29% / Under gap +2.42%
Under +2.42%
FanDuel
5.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap -0.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -5.41% / Under gap -0.61%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -5.41% / Under gap -0.61%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -2.42% / Under gap -4.87%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -3.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -10.53% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 44.1% | U 55.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 19.7
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs PHI | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 3.82
Strongest Gap Under +1.53%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -7.38% / Under gap +1.53%
Under +1.53%
DraftKings
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -6.68% / Under gap +0.62%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -7.03% / Under gap -0.08%
No Play
Model O 51.3% | U 48.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.2
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs NYY | 9 books
No Play
Adj K 5.11
Strongest Gap No Play +1.02%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +1.02% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -5.96% / Under gap +0.08%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -7.64% / Under gap +0.02%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap -4.66% / Under gap -1.52%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap -4.66% / Under gap -1.52%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -1.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -9.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -200 / U --
Over gap -11.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -11.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.2% | U 82.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.8
Michael Soroka headshot

Michael Soroka
AZ vs SD | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 4.24
Strongest Gap No Play -1.35%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +135 / U -173
Over gap -1.35% / Under gap -4.57%
No Play
Model O 41.2% | U 58.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.