{ "date": "2026-09-25", "generated_at": "2026-09-25T23:46:06.049208", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-09-25", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 66, "matched_count": 54, "unmatched_count": 12 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 54, "grouped_pitcher_count": 18, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 54, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -178, "under_odds": 138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3029, "model_under_probability": 0.6971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6403, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4202, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6038, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3962, "edge_over": -0.3374, "edge_under": 0.2769, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2769, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.1, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:42.512Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1883, "model_under_probability": 0.8117, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.2995, "edge_under": 0.2284, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2284, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.1, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -159, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 25.1, "opportunity_score": 48.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.668, "model_under_probability": 0.332, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6139, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.421, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.579, "edge_over": 0.2216, "edge_under": -0.2819, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.2216, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:42.604Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 92.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.296, "model_under_probability": 0.704, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.2873, "edge_under": 0.2162, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2162, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 92.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.296, "model_under_probability": 0.704, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.273, "edge_under": 0.2138, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2138, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 25.1, "opportunity_score": 48.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.668, "model_under_probability": 0.332, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": 0.2093, "edge_under": -0.268, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.2093, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 121, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 38.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1883, "model_under_probability": 0.8117, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5726, "edge_over": -0.2642, "edge_under": 0.2054, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2054, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.1, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -127, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 92.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.296, "model_under_probability": 0.704, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.2635, "edge_under": 0.204, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.204, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:49.293Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 25.1, "opportunity_score": 48.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.668, "model_under_probability": 0.332, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": 0.1918, "edge_under": -0.268, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1918, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "pitcher_id": 695549, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:36.053Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -175, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 24.5, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3739, "model_under_probability": 0.6261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5941, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4059, "edge_over": -0.2625, "edge_under": 0.1913, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1913, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 101, "under_odds": -129, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 22.8, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2513, "model_under_probability": 0.7487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.469, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.531, "edge_over": -0.2462, "edge_under": 0.1854, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1854, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.106, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 48.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:57:00.246Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 22.8, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2513, "model_under_probability": 0.7487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.2365, "edge_under": 0.1654, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1654, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.106, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 48.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "pitcher_id": 695549, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 121, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 24.5, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2335, "model_under_probability": 0.7665, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5726, "edge_over": -0.219, "edge_under": 0.1602, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1602, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "pitcher_id": 695549, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 24.5, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2335, "model_under_probability": 0.7665, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4204, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5796, "edge_over": -0.2129, "edge_under": 0.1511, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1511, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 54.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 22.8, "opportunity_score": 37.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2513, "model_under_probability": 0.7487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.2074, "edge_under": 0.1487, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1487, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.106, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 48.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "skill_score": 4.7, "opportunity_score": 45.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3768, "model_under_probability": 0.6232, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.1884, "edge_under": 0.1282, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1282, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 59.0, "opportunity_score": 35.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 69.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5146, "edge_over": -0.1842, "edge_under": 0.1241, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1241, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:57:00.546Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -190, "under_odds": 140, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 51.6, "opportunity_score": 50.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.465, "model_under_probability": 0.535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6552, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6113, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3887, "edge_over": -0.1902, "edge_under": 0.1183, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1183, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 82.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.76, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 3.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "skill_score": 4.7, "opportunity_score": 45.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3768, "model_under_probability": 0.6232, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.1581, "edge_under": 0.0971, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0971, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 107, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 59.0, "opportunity_score": 35.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 69.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.544, "edge_over": -0.1527, "edge_under": 0.0933, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0933, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:55:59.783Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.12, "skill_score": 4.7, "opportunity_score": 45.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3768, "model_under_probability": 0.6232, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1581, "edge_under": 0.0883, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0883, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.2, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 40.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3931, "model_under_probability": 0.6069, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.1482, "edge_under": 0.0877, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0877, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 51.6, "opportunity_score": 50.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3421, "model_under_probability": 0.6579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": -0.1433, "edge_under": 0.0834, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0834, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 82.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.76, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:42.512Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.2, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 40.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3931, "model_under_probability": 0.6069, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.1524, "edge_under": 0.0831, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0831, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "pitcher_id": 605280, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 62.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3756, "model_under_probability": 0.6244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5146, "edge_over": -0.139, "edge_under": 0.0789, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0789, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 13.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 51.6, "opportunity_score": 50.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3421, "model_under_probability": 0.6579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.1387, "edge_under": 0.0781, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0781, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 82.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.76, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 57.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:53.532Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 57.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6956, "model_under_probability": 0.3044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5835, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4165, "edge_over": 0.073, "edge_under": -0.14, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.073, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 55.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "pitcher_id": 605280, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:47.257Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 62.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3756, "model_under_probability": 0.6244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.1366, "edge_under": 0.0688, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0688, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 13.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -109, "under_odds": -117, "expected_strikeouts": 3.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.2, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 40.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3931, "model_under_probability": 0.6069, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5215, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5392, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4917, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5083, "edge_over": -0.1284, "edge_under": 0.0677, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0677, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:34.026Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 22.4, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3538, "model_under_probability": 0.6462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.134, "edge_under": 0.0629, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0629, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -170, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 22.4, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5065, "model_under_probability": 0.4935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.1231, "edge_under": 0.0625, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0625, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:55:32.005Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 59.0, "opportunity_score": 35.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 69.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.1347, "edge_under": 0.0618, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0618, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 57.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": 0.0584, "edge_under": -0.1179, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0584, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 55.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 6.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "skill_score": 53.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple 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"edge_under": -0.1184, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0579, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 57.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": 0.0492, "edge_under": -0.1109, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0492, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 55.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 6.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "skill_score": 53.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5771, "model_under_probability": 0.4229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": 0.0422, "edge_under": -0.1032, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0422, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:38.509Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 145, "under_odds": -200, "expected_strikeouts": 6.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "skill_score": 53.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4411, "model_under_probability": 0.5589, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4082, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6667, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3798, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6202, "edge_over": 0.0329, "edge_under": -0.1078, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0329, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "pitcher_id": 605280, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 62.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3756, "model_under_probability": 0.6244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": -0.0917, "edge_under": 0.0309, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0309, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.077, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 13.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -147, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 22.4, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5065, "model_under_probability": 0.4935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5951, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5613, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4387, "edge_over": -0.0886, "edge_under": 0.0284, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0284, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 62.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5971, "model_under_probability": 0.4029, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": 0.0208, "edge_under": -0.0825, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0208, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:42.604Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6207, "model_under_probability": 0.3793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": 0.0207, "edge_under": -0.0969, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0207, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 127, "under_odds": -163, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4493, "model_under_probability": 0.5507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4154, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5846, "edge_over": 0.0088, "edge_under": -0.0691, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0088, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 61.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5416, "model_under_probability": 0.4584, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5743, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4257, "edge_over": -0.0662, "edge_under": 0.0079, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0079, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 27.5, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4493, "model_under_probability": 0.5507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": 0.0068, "edge_under": -0.0676, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0068, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -129, "under_odds": 101, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 13.3, "opportunity_score": 31.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4969, "model_under_probability": 0.5031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.531, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.469, "edge_over": -0.0664, "edge_under": 0.0056, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 61.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5416, "model_under_probability": 0.4584, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.0647, "edge_under": 0.0039, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0039, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 62.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5971, "model_under_probability": 0.4029, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5606, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4394, "edge_over": 0.0036, "edge_under": -0.0622, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0036, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:28.872Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 121, "expected_strikeouts": 6.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "skill_score": 29.1, "opportunity_score": 45.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5523, "model_under_probability": 0.4477, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4268, "edge_over": -0.0555, "edge_under": -0.0048, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0048, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:21.781Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 62.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5971, "model_under_probability": 0.4029, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.0107, "edge_under": -0.0622, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0107, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 13.3, "opportunity_score": 31.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4969, "model_under_probability": 0.5031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.0129, "edge_under": -0.0464, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0129, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:40.314Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -164, "expected_strikeouts": 6.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "skill_score": 29.1, "opportunity_score": 45.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4155, "model_under_probability": 0.5845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5861, "edge_over": -0.0231, "edge_under": -0.0367, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0231, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:38.509Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 13.3, "opportunity_score": 31.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4969, "model_under_probability": 0.5031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.0269, "edge_under": -0.0424, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0269, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:56:49.293Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.09, "skill_score": 45.3, "opportunity_score": 61.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5416, "model_under_probability": 0.4584, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.0502, "edge_under": -0.0294, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0294, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 18.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-25T11:55:32.005Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "skill_score": 29.1, "opportunity_score": 45.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5523, "model_under_probability": 0.4477, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.031, "edge_under": -0.0401, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.031, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }