{ "date": "2026-07-08", "generated_at": "2026-07-08T08:04:20.012405", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-08", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 191, "matched_count": 98, "unmatched_count": 93 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 98, "grouped_pitcher_count": 14, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 98, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:55:40.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.2, "skill_score": 34.5, "opportunity_score": 43.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4196, "model_under_probability": 0.5804, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1882, "edge_under": 0.1153, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1153, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:39.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 111, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4171, "model_under_probability": 0.5829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5532, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4468, "edge_over": -0.1697, "edge_under": 0.109, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.109, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:56:36.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 6.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.2, "skill_score": 34.5, "opportunity_score": 43.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4196, "model_under_probability": 0.5804, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": -0.1602, "edge_under": 0.0996, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0996, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.387, "model_under_probability": 0.613, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.1585, "edge_under": 0.0984, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0984, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.387, "model_under_probability": 0.613, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.1585, "edge_under": 0.0984, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0984, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:45.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4171, "model_under_probability": 0.5829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1662, "edge_under": 0.0951, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0951, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:40.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.387, "model_under_probability": 0.613, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.1543, "edge_under": 0.0938, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0938, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 78.3, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 36.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.465, "model_under_probability": 0.535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5781, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4219, "edge_over": -0.1413, "edge_under": 0.0925, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0925, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2233, "model_under_probability": 0.7767, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0863, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0863, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0831, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0831, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:37.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.387, "model_under_probability": 0.613, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1479, "edge_under": 0.0781, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0781, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:40.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 107, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3491, "model_under_probability": 0.6509, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.544, "edge_over": -0.134, "edge_under": 0.0746, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0746, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4171, "model_under_probability": 0.5829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.1324, "edge_under": 0.0731, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0731, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4171, "model_under_probability": 0.5829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.1324, "edge_under": 0.0731, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0731, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 6.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.2, "skill_score": 34.5, "opportunity_score": 43.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4196, "model_under_probability": 0.5804, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.1299, "edge_under": 0.0706, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0706, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3491, "model_under_probability": 0.6509, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.1271, "edge_under": 0.0676, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0676, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3491, "model_under_probability": 0.6509, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.1271, "edge_under": 0.0676, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0676, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:56:44.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -127, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4342, "model_under_probability": 0.5658, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.1253, "edge_under": 0.0658, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0658, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 138, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4685, "model_under_probability": 0.5315, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4202, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0483, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0483, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:45.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 39.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5483, "model_under_probability": 0.4517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": 0.0483, "edge_under": -0.1228, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0483, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 76.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2094, "model_under_probability": 0.7906, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0481, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0481, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "pitcher_id": 665152, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 50.4, "opportunity_score": 51.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3461, "model_under_probability": 0.6539, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.1044, "edge_under": 0.0445, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0445, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:37.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1137, "edge_under": 0.0438, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0438, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4342, "model_under_probability": 0.5658, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.1007, "edge_under": 0.0397, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0397, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4342, "model_under_probability": 0.5658, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.1007, "edge_under": 0.0397, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0397, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 22.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2315, "model_under_probability": 0.7685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0392, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0392, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 255, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 76.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3166, "model_under_probability": 0.6834, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0349, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0349, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4068, "model_under_probability": 0.5932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.0932, "edge_under": 0.0318, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0318, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4068, "model_under_probability": 0.5932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.0932, "edge_under": 0.0318, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0318, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:06.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4068, "model_under_probability": 0.5932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.0882, "edge_under": 0.028, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.028, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:08.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6182, "model_under_probability": 0.3818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": 0.0264, "edge_under": -0.106, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0264, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 38.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2381, "model_under_probability": 0.7619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0253, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0253, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 6.5, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.235, "model_under_probability": 0.765, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0176, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0176, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:36.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 6.5, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5894, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4106, "edge_over": -0.0738, "edge_under": 0.0149, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0149, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 190, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 22.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3553, "model_under_probability": 0.6447, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3448, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0105, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0105, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:44.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4342, "model_under_probability": 0.5658, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.078, "edge_under": 0.0102, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0102, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:12.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 76.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4508, "model_under_probability": 0.5492, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": 0.0083, "edge_under": -0.0691, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0083, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:24.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4685, "model_under_probability": 0.5315, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.435, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.565, "edge_over": 0.0077, "edge_under": -0.0669, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0077, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 6.5, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": -0.068, "edge_under": 0.0072, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0072, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 6.5, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": -0.068, "edge_under": 0.0072, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0072, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 39.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5483, "model_under_probability": 0.4517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": 0.007, "edge_under": -0.0675, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.007, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:04.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -119, "under_odds": -107, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 39.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5483, "model_under_probability": 0.4517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5125, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4875, "edge_over": 0.0049, "edge_under": -0.0652, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0049, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 176, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 38.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.363, "model_under_probability": 0.637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3623, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0007, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0007, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:07.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -133, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 38.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.516, "model_under_probability": 0.484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5392, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4608, "edge_over": -0.0548, "edge_under": -0.0038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0038, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:56:16.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4068, "model_under_probability": 0.5932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.0694, "edge_under": -0.0068, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0068, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 76.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4508, "model_under_probability": 0.5492, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0079, "edge_under": -0.0508, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0079, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 76.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4508, "model_under_probability": 0.5492, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0079, "edge_under": -0.0508, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0079, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 38.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.516, "model_under_probability": 0.484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.0492, "edge_under": -0.011, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 38.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.516, "model_under_probability": 0.484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.0492, "edge_under": -0.011, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -170, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6182, "model_under_probability": 0.3818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.0114, "edge_under": -0.0492, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0114, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -170, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6182, "model_under_probability": 0.3818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.0114, "edge_under": -0.0492, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0114, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 158, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 6.5, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3756, "model_under_probability": 0.6244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3876, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.012, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.012, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 22.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.0475, "edge_under": -0.0131, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0131, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:57.816Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 22.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.0475, "edge_under": -0.0131, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0131, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:27.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 76.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4508, "model_under_probability": 0.5492, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0143, "edge_under": -0.0586, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0143, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:07.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 6.5, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.0575, "edge_under": -0.0154, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0154, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:56:47.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 38.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.516, "model_under_probability": 0.484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0585, "edge_under": -0.016, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.016, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1749, "model_under_probability": 0.8251, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0174, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0174, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-08T11:57:39.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 22.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5126, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4874, "edge_over": -0.0332, "edge_under": -0.0227, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0227, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "pitcher_id": 665152, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 50.4, "opportunity_score": 51.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1356, "model_under_probability": 0.8644, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0311, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0311, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1561, "model_under_probability": 0.8439, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0326, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0326, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1376, "model_under_probability": 0.8624, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0348, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0348, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1631, "model_under_probability": 0.8369, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0369, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0369, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 255, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 78.3, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 36.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2397, "model_under_probability": 0.7603, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.042, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.042, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2861, "model_under_probability": 0.7139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0472, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0472, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.763, "model_under_probability": 0.237, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0483, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0483, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1197, "model_under_probability": 0.8803, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0527, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0527, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -192, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 76.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6018, "model_under_probability": 0.3982, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0557, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0557, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.881, "model_under_probability": 0.119, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0602, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0602, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2618, "model_under_probability": 0.7382, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3226, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0608, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0608, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "pitcher_id": 665152, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 50.4, "opportunity_score": 51.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2237, "model_under_probability": 0.7763, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0704, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0704, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 76.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8732, "model_under_probability": 0.1268, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0742, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0742, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2263, "model_under_probability": 0.7737, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0767, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0767, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 6.5, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7331, "model_under_probability": 0.2669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0782, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0782, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 186, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2709, "model_under_probability": 0.7291, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3497, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0788, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0788, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 38.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8274, "model_under_probability": 0.1726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0817, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0817, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "skill_score": 25.4, "opportunity_score": 76.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7503, "model_under_probability": 0.2497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.083, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.083, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 22.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.673, "model_under_probability": 0.327, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0831, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0831, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 22.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 79.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8228, "model_under_probability": 0.1772, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0863, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0863, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 27.2, "opportunity_score": 38.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6798, "model_under_probability": 0.3202, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0876, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0876, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2261, "model_under_probability": 0.7739, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0914, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0914, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 78.3, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 36.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3421, "model_under_probability": 0.6579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -850, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7759, "model_under_probability": 0.2241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1188, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1188, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 78.3, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 36.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8465, "model_under_probability": 0.1535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9756, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1291, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1291, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7566, "model_under_probability": 0.2434, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1323, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1323, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -290, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 18.9, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6067, "model_under_probability": 0.3933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7436, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1369, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1369, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "pitcher_id": 665152, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 50.4, "opportunity_score": 51.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8172, "model_under_probability": 0.1828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9565, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1393, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1393, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8191, "model_under_probability": 0.1809, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9615, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1424, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1424, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.764, "model_under_probability": 0.236, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1451, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1451, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5808, "model_under_probability": 0.4192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1452, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1452, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5906, "model_under_probability": 0.4094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1655, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1655, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.17, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5918, "model_under_probability": 0.4082, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1701, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1701, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "pitcher_id": 665152, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 50.4, "opportunity_score": 51.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4985, "model_under_probability": 0.5015, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1736, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1736, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -530, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6675, "model_under_probability": 0.3325, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1738, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1738, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dean Kremer", "pitcher_id": 665152, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 50.4, "opportunity_score": 51.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6647, "model_under_probability": 0.3353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8387, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.174, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.174, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30294.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 78.3, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 36.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7324, "model_under_probability": 0.2676, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1767, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1767, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1808, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1808, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 78.3, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 36.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5998, "model_under_probability": 0.4002, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7826, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1828, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1828, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.1, "wind_speed_mph": 18.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }