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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-04-22 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-04-22
44 matched props 22 unmatched
Newer: 2026-04-27 Older: 2026-04-21

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 44
Grouped Pitchers 14
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 22
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-04-22 | Raw sportsbook rows: 44 | Grouped pitcher entries: 14 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-04-22/strikeout_edges_2026-04-22.json
Jack Leiter headshot

Jack Leiter
TEX vs PIT | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.13
Strongest Gap Under +10.94%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -18.05% / Under gap +10.94%
Under +10.94%
DraftKings
5.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -16.62% / Under gap +10.70%
Under +10.70%
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -13.85% / Under gap +6.89%
Under +6.89%
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.5
Eric Lauer headshot

Eric Lauer
TOR vs LAA | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap Under +9.81%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -17.43% / Under gap +9.81%
Under +9.81%
DraftKings
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -13.57% / Under gap +7.43%
Under +7.43%
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -11.56% / Under gap +4.60%
Under +4.60%
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -11.56% / Under gap +4.60%
Under +4.60%
Model O 42.6% | U 57.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.5
Zack Littell headshot

Zack Littell
WSH vs ATL | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 4.31
Strongest Gap Over +8.73%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -104 / U -128
Over gap +8.73% / Under gap -15.85%
Over +8.73%
Model O 59.7% | U 40.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.1
Aaron Civale headshot

Aaron Civale
ATH vs SEA | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 4.41
Strongest Gap Under +8.29%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -146 / U +110
Over gap -15.26% / Under gap +8.29%
Under +8.29%
FanDuel
4.5
O -146 / U +110
Over gap -15.26% / Under gap +8.29%
Under +8.29%
DraftKings
4.5
O -129 / U +101
Over gap -12.24% / Under gap +6.16%
Under +6.16%
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -9.40% / Under gap +2.42%
Under +2.42%
Model O 44.1% | U 55.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.2
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
SF vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.30
Strongest Gap Under +6.56%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -13.34% / Under gap +6.56%
Under +6.56%
DraftKings
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -9.70% / Under gap +3.65%
Under +3.65%
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -128
Over gap -8.76% / Under gap +1.64%
Under +1.64%
Model O 42.2% | U 57.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.3
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs SD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.61
Strongest Gap Over +4.77%
Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
2.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap +4.77% / Under gap -11.47%
Over +4.77%
DraftKings
2.5
O -174 / U +136
Over gap +3.53% / Under gap -9.40%
Over +3.53%
FanDuel
2.5
O -182 / U +136
Over gap +2.49% / Under gap -9.40%
Over +2.49%
Model O 67.0% | U 33.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.2
Casey Mize headshot

Casey Mize
DET vs MIL | 4 books
Lean
Adj K 5.00
Strongest Gap Under +1.95%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -159 / U +125
Over gap -7.78% / Under gap +1.95%
Under +1.95%
FanDuel
4.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -7.63% / Under gap +0.52%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -154 / U +116
Over gap -7.02% / Under gap +0.09%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -6.39% / Under gap -1.23%
No Play
Model O 53.6% | U 46.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.3
Clay Holmes headshot

Clay Holmes
NYM vs MIN | 4 books
Lean
Adj K 4.48
Strongest Gap Under +1.90%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -8.86% / Under gap +1.90%
Under +1.90%
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -8.86% / Under gap +1.90%
Under +1.90%
DraftKings
4.5
O -112 / U -114
Over gap -7.56% / Under gap +1.46%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -8.22% / Under gap +1.24%
No Play
Model O 45.3% | U 54.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.0
Max Fried headshot

Max Fried
NYY vs BOS | 4 books
No Play
Adj K 5.53
Strongest Gap No Play +1.36%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -8.29% / Under gap +1.36%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -144
Over gap -1.82% / Under gap -5.28%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -144
Over gap -1.82% / Under gap -5.28%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -3.24% / Under gap -2.78%
No Play
Model O 46.3% | U 53.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.6
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs CWS | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.69
Strongest Gap No Play +1.28%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -127 / U +100
Over gap -7.23% / Under gap +1.28%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -5.83% / Under gap -1.10%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -5.41% / Under gap -1.55%
No Play
Model O 48.7% | U 51.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.4
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs ATH | 4 books
No Play
Adj K 6.80
Strongest Gap No Play +0.38%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -129 / U +101
Over gap -6.46% / Under gap +0.38%
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -0.13% / Under gap -7.32%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -125 / U -106
Over gap -5.69% / Under gap -1.33%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -122 / U -108
Over gap -5.08% / Under gap -1.79%
No Play
Model O 49.9% | U 50.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.8
José Soriano headshot

José Soriano
LAA vs TOR | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.77
Strongest Gap No Play -1.02%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -103 / U -124
Over gap -1.02% / Under gap -5.08%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -4.41% / Under gap -2.55%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -2.66% / Under gap -4.27%
No Play
Model O 49.7% | U 50.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.0
Matthew Boyd headshot

Matthew Boyd
CHC vs PHI | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.30
Strongest Gap No Play -1.20%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +127 / U -163
Over gap -1.20% / Under gap -4.83%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -4.77% / Under gap -2.85%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -3.45% / Under gap -3.48%
No Play
Model O 42.9% | U 57.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.7
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs NYY | 1 books
No Play
Adj K 5.25
Strongest Gap No Play -1.38%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +130 / U -174
Over gap -1.38% / Under gap -5.60%
No Play
Model O 42.1% | U 57.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.5

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.