{ "date": "2026-04-22", "generated_at": "2026-04-22T14:50:51.410945", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-04-22", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 66, "matched_count": 44, "unmatched_count": 22 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 44, "grouped_pitcher_count": 14, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 44, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:36:08.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 56.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4028, "model_under_probability": 0.5972, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1805, "edge_under": 0.1094, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1094, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:30.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 56.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4028, "model_under_probability": 0.5972, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.1662, "edge_under": 0.107, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.107, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:45.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 28.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 88.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.1743, "edge_under": 0.0981, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0981, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 13.0, "opportunity_score": 20.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5971, "model_under_probability": 0.4029, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4759, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5241, "edge_over": 0.0873, "edge_under": -0.1585, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0873, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Civale", "pitcher_id": 650644, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:51.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.41, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 36.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4409, "model_under_probability": 0.5591, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5548, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4452, "edge_over": -0.1526, "edge_under": 0.0829, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0829, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24505.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Civale", "pitcher_id": 650644, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.41, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 36.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4409, "model_under_probability": 0.5591, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5548, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4452, "edge_over": -0.1526, "edge_under": 0.0829, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0829, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24505.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:34:11.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 28.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 88.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.1357, "edge_under": 0.0743, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0743, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:44.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 56.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4028, "model_under_probability": 0.5972, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.1385, "edge_under": 0.0689, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0689, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.4, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:36:08.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "skill_score": 24.6, "opportunity_score": 44.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 61.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4222, "model_under_probability": 0.5778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.1334, "edge_under": 0.0656, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0656, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 52.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Civale", "pitcher_id": 650644, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:49.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -129, "under_odds": 101, "expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.41, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 36.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4409, "model_under_probability": 0.5591, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.531, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.469, "edge_over": -0.1224, "edge_under": 0.0616, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0616, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24505.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:33:51.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 7.6, "opportunity_score": 26.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6703, "model_under_probability": 0.3297, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5835, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4165, "edge_over": 0.0477, "edge_under": -0.1147, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0477, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 59.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:42.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 28.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 88.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or 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"opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 28.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 88.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is 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"wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "pitcher_id": 605280, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:40.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4527, "model_under_probability": 0.5473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.0756, "edge_under": 0.0146, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0146, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 45.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:36:07.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 18.0, "opportunity_score": 74.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4626, "model_under_probability": 0.5374, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0829, "edge_under": 0.0136, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0136, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:32.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -127, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 73.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 15.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4872, "model_under_probability": 0.5128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.0723, "edge_under": 0.0128, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0128, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "pitcher_id": 605280, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:36:06.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4527, "model_under_probability": 0.5473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0822, "edge_under": 0.0124, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0124, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 45.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 49.7, "opportunity_score": 47.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.0763, "edge_under": 0.0052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0052, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.917, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:49.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -129, "under_odds": 101, "expected_strikeouts": 6.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.8, "skill_score": 53.7, "opportunity_score": 50.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4987, "model_under_probability": 0.5013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.531, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.469, "edge_over": -0.0646, "edge_under": 0.0038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0038, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:36:06.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 49.7, "opportunity_score": 47.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.567, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.433, "edge_over": -0.0702, "edge_under": 0.0009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.917, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:51.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 6.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.8, "skill_score": 53.7, "opportunity_score": 50.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4987, "model_under_probability": 0.5013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0013, "edge_under": -0.0732, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:34:11.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -103, "under_odds": -124, "expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "skill_score": 67.8, "opportunity_score": 65.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4972, "model_under_probability": 0.5028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4782, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5218, "edge_over": -0.0102, "edge_under": -0.0508, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0102, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.924, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:36:07.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 73.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 15.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4872, "model_under_probability": 0.5128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0583, "edge_under": -0.011, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:32.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 127, "under_odds": -163, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 80.8, "opportunity_score": 25.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 96.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4285, "model_under_probability": 0.5715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4154, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5846, "edge_over": -0.012, "edge_under": -0.0483, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.012, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 44.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:03.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 49.7, "opportunity_score": 47.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0639, "edge_under": -0.0123, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0123, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.917, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 6.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.8, "skill_score": 53.7, "opportunity_score": 50.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4987, "model_under_probability": 0.5013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4808, "edge_over": -0.0569, "edge_under": -0.0133, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0133, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -174, "expected_strikeouts": 5.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 33.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.421, "model_under_probability": 0.579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4064, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5936, "edge_over": -0.0138, "edge_under": -0.056, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0138, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:36:05.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 73.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 15.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4872, "model_under_probability": 0.5128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.0541, "edge_under": -0.0155, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0155, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:51.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 6.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.8, "skill_score": 53.7, "opportunity_score": 50.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4987, "model_under_probability": 0.5013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5142, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4858, "edge_over": -0.0508, "edge_under": -0.0179, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0179, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:59.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 18.0, "opportunity_score": 74.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4626, "model_under_probability": 0.5374, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4489, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5511, "edge_over": -0.0182, "edge_under": -0.0528, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0182, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 18.0, "opportunity_score": 74.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4626, "model_under_probability": 0.5374, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4489, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5511, "edge_over": -0.0182, "edge_under": -0.0528, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0182, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:42.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "skill_score": 67.8, "opportunity_score": 65.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4972, "model_under_probability": 0.5028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.0441, "edge_under": -0.0255, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0255, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.924, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:45.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "skill_score": 67.8, "opportunity_score": 65.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4972, "model_under_probability": 0.5028, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.0266, "edge_under": -0.0427, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0266, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.924, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:34:03.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 18.0, "opportunity_score": 74.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 11.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4626, "model_under_probability": 0.5374, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.0324, "edge_under": -0.0278, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0278, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 42.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:35:35.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 80.8, "opportunity_score": 25.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 96.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4285, "model_under_probability": 0.5715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.0477, "edge_under": -0.0285, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0285, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 44.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-04-22T18:36:10.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 80.8, "opportunity_score": 25.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 96.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4285, "model_under_probability": 0.5715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": -0.0345, "edge_under": -0.0348, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0345, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 44.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Didier Fuentes", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Didier Fuentes", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Didier Fuentes", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Soriano", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Matt Boyd", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Su\u00e1rez", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Su\u00e1rez", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Su\u00e1rez", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }