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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-04-21 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-04-21
30 matched props 0 unmatched
Newer: 2026-04-22 Older: 2026-04-19

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 30
Grouped Pitchers 10
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 0
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-04-21 | Raw sportsbook rows: 30 | Grouped pitcher entries: 10 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-04-21/strikeout_edges_2026-04-21.json
Carmen Mlodzinski headshot

Carmen Mlodzinski
PIT vs TEX | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.19
Strongest Gap Under +20.15%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -26.07% / Under gap +20.15%
Under +20.15%
FanDuel
4.5
O +102 / U -136
Over gap -26.55% / Under gap +19.42%
Under +19.42%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -23.56% / Under gap +16.27%
Under +16.27%
Model O 22.9% | U 77.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 19.6
Jacob Lopez headshot

Jacob Lopez
ATH vs SEA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.72
Strongest Gap Under +11.88%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -112 / U -118
Over gap -18.84% / Under gap +11.88%
Under +11.88%
BetMGM
5.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -18.39% / Under gap +11.46%
Under +11.46%
DraftKings
5.5
O -105 / U -122
Over gap -17.23% / Under gap +11.06%
Under +11.06%
Model O 34.0% | U 66.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.6
Randy Vásquez headshot

Randy Vásquez
SD vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.67
Strongest Gap Under +8.76%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -16.38% / Under gap +8.76%
Under +8.76%
DraftKings
4.5
O +118 / U -151
Over gap -14.63% / Under gap +8.60%
Under +8.60%
FanDuel
4.5
O +118 / U -158
Over gap -14.63% / Under gap +7.52%
Under +7.52%
Model O 31.2% | U 68.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.6
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.50
Strongest Gap Under +8.53%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -158 / U +118
Over gap -15.64% / Under gap +8.53%
Under +8.53%
DraftKings
5.5
O +126 / U -161
Over gap -13.65% / Under gap +7.71%
Under +7.71%
BetMGM
5.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -13.84% / Under gap +7.14%
Under +7.14%
Model O 45.6% | U 54.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.9
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs AZ | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.73
Strongest Gap Under +7.26%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -169 / U +132
Over gap -13.19% / Under gap +7.26%
Under +7.26%
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -11.14% / Under gap +3.85%
Under +3.85%
FanDuel
4.5
O +132 / U -178
Over gap -10.80% / Under gap +3.67%
Under +3.67%
Model O 49.6% | U 50.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.7
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs CWS | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.80
Strongest Gap Under +3.64%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap -9.67% / Under gap +3.64%
Under +3.64%
FanDuel
4.5
O -140 / U +106
Over gap -7.84% / Under gap +0.97%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -6.03% / Under gap -1.71%
No Play
Model O 50.5% | U 49.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.6
Jack Kochanowicz headshot

Jack Kochanowicz
LAA vs TOR | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 3.66
Strongest Gap Over +2.03%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap +2.03% / Under gap -8.96%
Over +2.03%
BetMGM
3.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap +1.82% / Under gap -9.11%
Over +1.82%
DraftKings
3.5
O +101 / U -129
Over gap -1.42% / Under gap -4.66%
No Play
Model O 48.3% | U 51.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 15.4
Luis Castillo headshot

Luis Castillo
SEA vs ATH | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.49
Strongest Gap Under +1.72%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -114 / U -111
Over gap -7.60% / Under gap +1.72%
Under +1.72%
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -7.82% / Under gap +0.84%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -106 / U -125
Over gap -5.79% / Under gap -1.23%
No Play
Model O 45.7% | U 54.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.2
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs PIT | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.51
Strongest Gap No Play +0.74%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -7.72% / Under gap +0.74%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -105 / U -122
Over gap -5.45% / Under gap -0.72%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -130
Over gap -4.73% / Under gap -2.29%
No Play
Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.6
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs SF | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.83
Strongest Gap No Play +0.57%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -132
Over gap +0.57% / Under gap -7.47%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -0.41% / Under gap -5.52%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -2.92% / Under gap -4.06%
No Play
Model O 50.6% | U 49.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 71.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.