{ "date": "2026-03-25", "generated_at": "2026-03-25T08:28:36.630043", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v1_deterministic", "projection_date": "2026-03-25", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 42, "matched_count": 42, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 42, "matched_rows": 42, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 0, "under_recommendation_count": 2, "strong_count": 0, "play_count": 1, "lean_count": 1, "no_play_count": 40, "average_edge_over": -0.0269, "average_edge_under": -0.0109, "value_play_count": 0 }, "edge_count": 42, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": -255, "expected_home_runs": 0.251, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.222, "model_over_probability": 0.222, "model_under_probability": 0.778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3065, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6935, "edge_over": -0.0955, "edge_under": 0.0597, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0597, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.862, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 95.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": -275, "expected_home_runs": 0.251, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.222, "model_over_probability": 0.222, "model_under_probability": 0.778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2956, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7044, "edge_over": -0.0857, "edge_under": 0.0447, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0447, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.862, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 95.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "hitter_id": 665862, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -510, "expected_home_runs": 0.1612, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1489, "model_over_probability": 0.1489, "model_under_probability": 0.8511, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8361, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.807, "edge_over": -0.0511, "edge_under": 0.015, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.015, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.866, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "hitter_id": 665862, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": -545, "expected_home_runs": 0.1612, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1489, "model_over_probability": 0.1489, "model_under_probability": 0.8511, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.845, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1884, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8116, "edge_over": -0.0472, "edge_under": 0.0061, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0061, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.866, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 26, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -615, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "model_over_probability": 0.1859, "model_under_probability": 0.8141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8601, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8268, "edge_over": 0.0057, "edge_under": -0.046, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0057, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.926, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 28, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -565, "expected_home_runs": 0.1568, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1451, "model_over_probability": 0.1451, "model_under_probability": 0.8549, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8496, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.179, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.821, "edge_over": -0.0401, "edge_under": 0.0053, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0053, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 29, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trent Grisham", "hitter_id": 663757, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -635, "expected_home_runs": 0.2007, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1818, "model_over_probability": 0.1818, "model_under_probability": 0.8182, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8639, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.17, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.83, "edge_over": 0.0048, "edge_under": -0.0457, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0048, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.926, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 31, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "model_over_probability": 0.1859, "model_under_probability": 0.8141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0041, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0041, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.926, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 32, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trent Grisham", "hitter_id": 663757, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -595, "expected_home_runs": 0.2007, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1818, "model_over_probability": 0.1818, "model_under_probability": 0.8182, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8561, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1726, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8274, "edge_over": 0.0032, "edge_under": -0.0379, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0032, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.926, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 34, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Trent Grisham", "hitter_id": 663757, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2007, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1818, "model_over_probability": 0.1818, "model_under_probability": 0.8182, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0032, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0032, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.926, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 35, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -575, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "model_over_probability": 0.1859, "model_under_probability": 0.8141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8519, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1772, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8228, "edge_over": 0.0024, "edge_under": -0.0378, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0024, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.926, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 36, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "hitter_id": 671218, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1624, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1499, "model_over_probability": 0.1499, "model_under_probability": 0.8501, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1436, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8564, "edge_over": 0.0006, "edge_under": -0.0406, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.957, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 39, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.1449, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1349, "model_over_probability": 0.1349, "model_under_probability": 0.8651, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8361, "edge_over": -0.0346, "edge_under": 0.0002, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 42, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "hitter_id": 671218, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.1624, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1499, "model_over_probability": 0.1499, "model_under_probability": 0.8501, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8548, "edge_over": -0.0005, "edge_under": -0.035, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.957, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 40, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "hitter_id": 671218, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 565, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1624, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1499, "model_over_probability": 0.1499, "model_under_probability": 0.8501, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1504, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0005, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.957, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 41, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.1959, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1779, "model_over_probability": 0.1779, "model_under_probability": 0.8221, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2054, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7946, "edge_over": -0.0349, "edge_under": -0.0009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0009, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 38, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "hitter_id": 650333, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.048, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0469, "model_over_probability": 0.0469, "model_under_probability": 0.9531, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0331, "edge_under": -0.0019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 37, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1568, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1451, "model_over_probability": 0.1451, "model_under_probability": 0.8549, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1748, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8252, "edge_over": -0.0367, "edge_under": -0.0033, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0033, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 33, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": -1645, "expected_home_runs": 0.0645, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0625, "model_over_probability": 0.0625, "model_under_probability": 0.9375, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9427, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0891, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9109, "edge_over": -0.0297, "edge_under": -0.0052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0052, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.864, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 30, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "hitter_id": 666149, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": -890, "expected_home_runs": 0.1131, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1069, "model_over_probability": 0.1069, "model_under_probability": 0.8931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.899, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1315, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8685, "edge_over": -0.0292, "edge_under": -0.0059, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0059, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 27, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 295, "under_odds": -370, "expected_home_runs": 0.2833, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2467, "model_over_probability": 0.2467, "model_under_probability": 0.7533, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2532, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7872, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2434, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7566, "edge_over": -0.0065, "edge_under": -0.0339, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0065, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 25, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -590, "expected_home_runs": 0.1642, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1514, "model_over_probability": 0.1514, "model_under_probability": 0.8486, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8551, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1741, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8259, "edge_over": -0.0288, "edge_under": -0.0065, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0065, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.876, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 24, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "hitter_id": 650333, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.048, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0469, "model_over_probability": 0.0469, "model_under_probability": 0.9531, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0331, "edge_under": -0.0069, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0069, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 23, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.1449, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1349, "model_over_probability": 0.1349, "model_under_probability": 0.8651, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1615, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8385, "edge_over": -0.0332, "edge_under": -0.0075, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0075, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 22, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 960, "under_odds": -1735, "expected_home_runs": 0.0645, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0625, "model_over_probability": 0.0625, "model_under_probability": 0.9375, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0943, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0907, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9093, "edge_over": -0.0318, "edge_under": -0.008, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.864, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 21, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "hitter_id": 808982, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.073, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0704, "model_over_probability": 0.0704, "model_under_probability": 0.9296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0096, "edge_under": -0.0254, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.97, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 18, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "hitter_id": 808982, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.073, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0704, "model_over_probability": 0.0704, "model_under_probability": 0.9296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": -0.0096, "edge_under": -0.0304, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.97, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 19, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "hitter_id": 808982, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.073, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0704, "model_over_probability": 0.0704, "model_under_probability": 0.9296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0096, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.97, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 20, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2833, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2467, "model_over_probability": 0.2467, "model_under_probability": 0.7533, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0097, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0097, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 17, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.1959, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1779, "model_over_probability": 0.1779, "model_under_probability": 0.8221, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7998, "edge_over": -0.0304, "edge_under": -0.0098, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0098, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 16, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "hitter_id": 666149, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": -945, "expected_home_runs": 0.1131, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1069, "model_over_probability": 0.1069, "model_under_probability": 0.8931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9043, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1308, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8692, "edge_over": -0.0292, "edge_under": -0.0112, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0112, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 15, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.2833, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2467, "model_over_probability": 0.2467, "model_under_probability": 0.7533, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7491, "edge_over": -0.013, "edge_under": -0.022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 14, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -630, "expected_home_runs": 0.1642, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1514, "model_over_probability": 0.1514, "model_under_probability": 0.8486, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.863, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1702, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8298, "edge_over": -0.0256, "edge_under": -0.0144, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0144, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.876, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 13, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1642, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1514, "model_over_probability": 0.1514, "model_under_probability": 0.8486, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0272, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0272, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.876, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.1, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "hitter_id": 666149, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1131, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1069, "model_over_probability": 0.1069, "model_under_probability": 0.8931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0292, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0292, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "hitter_id": 676609, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 965, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0645, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0625, "model_over_probability": 0.0625, "model_under_probability": 0.9375, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0939, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0314, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0314, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.864, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1959, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1779, "model_over_probability": 0.1779, "model_under_probability": 0.8221, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0326, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0326, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.917, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "hitter_id": 650333, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.048, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0469, "model_over_probability": 0.0469, "model_under_probability": 0.9531, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0331, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0331, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 100.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1449, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1349, "model_over_probability": 0.1349, "model_under_probability": 0.8651, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0346, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0346, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 101.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1568, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1451, "model_over_probability": 0.1451, "model_under_probability": 0.8549, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0384, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0384, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.904, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 99.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "hitter_id": 665862, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1612, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1489, "model_over_probability": 0.1489, "model_under_probability": 0.8511, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0491, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0491, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.866, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 97.8, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.251, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.222, "model_over_probability": 0.222, "model_under_probability": 0.778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0905, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0905, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.862, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 95.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.914, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "value_plays": [], "unmatched_inputs": [] }