Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

PIT at DET

Kirby Yates vs Justin Verlander · 1:10 PM ET

In Progress 0 - 0

The question

Does Mithrandir lean PIT or DET?

Mithrandir currently leans DET over PIT.

Live win probability from the latest pitch-aware Mirror simulation.

51.4% Mirror live re-sim

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs PIT 4.9 · DET 4.4 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.3 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.8 runs

Run line PIT -1.5 · DET 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 46.2% · YRFI 53.8% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 15 Available in 15 player rows

Fangorn 2 Available in 2 player rows

Valinor 2 Available in 2 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

15 matched rows

Total bases · PIT vs DET Jake Mangum Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P22.9% F-- V--

Model 55.5% Market 23.8% Model-market gap +31.7 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · DET vs PIT Justin Verlander Under 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.3% F-- V51.2%

Model 56.6% Market 34.7% Model-market gap +21.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs DET Ryan O'Hearn Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P31.9% F-- V--

Model 51.7% Market 32.8% Model-market gap +18.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs DET Bryan Reynolds Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.6% F-- V--

Model 51.5% Market 33.3% Model-market gap +18.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs DET Brandon Lowe Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.4% F-- V--

Model 51.1% Market 35.7% Model-market gap +15.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs DET Oneil Cruz Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P23.0% F-- V--

Model 50.0% Market 45.7% Model-market gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · PIT vs DET Spencer Horwitz Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P24.8% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 46.2% Model-market gap +3.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · PIT vs DET Ryan O'Hearn Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.7% F14.5% V14.0%

Model 16.6% Market 13.0% Model-market gap +3.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · PIT vs DET Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.3% F13.4% V14.9%

Model 16.8% Market 13.5% Model-market gap +3.3 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs DET Oneil Cruz Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 87.3% Market 73.7% Provisional model gap +13.6 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs DET Brandon Lowe Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 79.4% Market 75.0% Provisional model gap +4.4 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs DET Bryan Reynolds Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 77.3% Market 73.0% Provisional model gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs DET Ryan O'Hearn Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 76.0% Market 72.2% Provisional model gap +3.8 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs DET Jake Mangum Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P2.0% F-- V--

Model 71.0% Market 67.7% Provisional model gap +3.2 pts

Open board

Hits · PIT vs DET Spencer Horwitz Under 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 98.0% Market 95.7% Provisional model gap +2.4 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Detroit win contract 51.5% Bid 51c · ask 52c · Mithrandir 50.3%

Pittsburgh win contract 48.5% Bid 48c · ask 49c · Mithrandir 49.7%

First inning run: Yes -- Exchange price · Mithrandir 51.7%

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.