Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-26

Justin Verlander

DET · SP · throws R · age 43
Projected starter Opp K 24.1% Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupDET vs PITopponent
Sample--career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 4 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 60.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 43.4% Market -- Gap +21.9pp
FanDuel -430 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+100
Small sample
Fastball Stuff+103
Small sample
Mithrandir Stuff+99
Small sample
Slider Stuff+91
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range13.4% to 25.0%
Opponent K24.1%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)