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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
PIT @ DET, live.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Live · Top 5 · 1-0 · 0 out
PIT @ DET: live re-simulation
The newest pitch state publishes before the Monte Carlo finishes. This page checks every 5 seconds. State checked 18:39:34Z UTC · probabilities recalculating now · back to slate
PIT 57.1%DET 42.9%
6.27live total (pre 9.66)
1.0 / 5.31SP K projections
51% → 43%DET win prob, pregame → now
Market context · Kalshi (display only, not affiliated)
51.5% vs 52.9%
DET wins · market mid vs model fair (live)
45.5% vs 47.1%
PIT wins · market mid vs model fair (live)
A gap is a disagreement, not advice; the market is often right. Snapshot 9m old · all event markets · responsible gaming
DET win probability across the game so far.
| Inn | Matchup | Opening PA forecast | Actual | DET win prob → |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bot 4 | Max Clark vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Reach 35% 1B 20% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.6% · HR 1.4% · BB 8% · K 19% · BIP out 46% | Strikeout | 33.1% ▼ 13.4 |
| Bot 4 | Javier Báez vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Reach 30% 1B 19% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 1.3% · BB 5% · K 20% · BIP out 50% | Field Error | 46.6% ▲ 4.6 |
| Bot 4 | Zach McKinstry vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Reach 30% 1B 17% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.4% · HR 0.9% · BB 8% · K 16% · BIP out 54% | Hit By Pitch | 42.0% ▲ 2.0 |
| Bot 4 | Spencer Torkelson vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Reach 32% 1B 14% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.8% · BB 9% · K 27% · BIP out 41% | Strikeout | 40.0% ▼ 7.7 |
| Bot 4 | Dillon Dingler vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Reach 31% 1B 16% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.4% · HR 3.0% · BB 6% · K 20% · BIP out 49% | Strikeout | 47.7% ▼ 3.7 |
| Bot 4 | Riley Greene vs Carmen Mlodzinski | Reach 37% 1B 18% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.3% · BB 10% · K 24% · BIP out 39% | Double | 51.4% ▲ 4.0 |
| Top 4 | Konnor Griffin vs Justin Verlander | Reach 33% 1B 19% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.6% · HR 3.2% · BB 6% · K 24% · BIP out 43% | Flyout | 47.4% ▲ 1.7 |
| Top 4 | Jake Mangum vs Justin Verlander | Reach 33% 1B 22% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.6% · HR 2.2% · BB 5% · K 20% · BIP out 47% | Strikeout | 45.7% ▲ 2.3 |
| Top 4 | Bryan Reynolds vs Justin Verlander | Reach 36% 1B 17% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.5% · HR 3.9% · BB 10% · K 23% · BIP out 41% | Groundout | 43.4% ▲ 4.9 |
| Top 4 | Brandon Lowe vs Justin Verlander | Reach 35% 1B 14% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.3% · HR 7.3% · BB 8% · K 28% · BIP out 37% | Home Run +1 RBI | 38.6% ▼ 13.7 |
| Bot 3 | Eduardo Valencia vs Yohan Ramírez | Reach 33% 1B 16% · 2B 7% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.9% · BB 8% · K 28% · BIP out 39% | Strikeout | 52.3% ▼ 8.9 |
| Bot 3 | Kevin McGonigle vs Yohan Ramírez | Reach 36% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 1.3% · BB 15% · K 20% · BIP out 44% | Strikeout | 61.1% ▼ 10.6 |
| Bot 3 | Hao-Yu Lee vs Yohan Ramírez | Reach 30% 1B 15% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 1.4% · BB 10% · K 30% · BIP out 40% | Walk | 71.7% ▲ 4.6 |
| Bot 3 | Max Clark vs Yohan Ramírez | Reach 32% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 1.0% · BB 11% · K 27% · BIP out 41% | Lineout | 67.1% ▼ 0.9 |
| Bot 3 | Javier Báez vs Yohan Ramírez | Reach 27% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 1.0% · BB 7% · K 28% · BIP out 45% | Single | 68.0% ▲ 3.1 |
| Bot 3 | Zach McKinstry vs Yohan Ramírez | Reach 28% 1B 14% · 2B 2% · 3B 0.3% · HR 0.7% · BB 11% · K 23% · BIP out 48% | Hit By Pitch | 64.9% ▲ 9.1 |
| Top 3 | Ryan O'Hearn vs Justin Verlander | Reach 34% 1B 16% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 5.7% · BB 7% · K 21% · BIP out 45% | Strikeout | 55.7% ▼ 2.6 |
| Top 3 | Henry Davis vs Justin Verlander | Reach 29% 1B 12% · 2B 3% · 3B 0.3% · HR 5.3% · BB 8% · K 21% · BIP out 50% | Strikeout | 58.3% ▲ 3.4 |
| Top 3 | Jacob Gonzalez vs Justin Verlander | Reach 30% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.3% · HR 4.4% · BB 5% · K 20% · BIP out 50% | Flyout | 54.9% ▼ 3.7 |
| Bot 2 | Spencer Torkelson vs Yohan Ramírez | Reach 29% 1B 11% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.2% · HR 2.1% · BB 12% · K 37% · BIP out 33% | Strikeout | 58.6% ▲ 7.7 |
| Bot 2 | Dillon Dingler vs Kirby Yates | Reach 28% 1B 13% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.3% · HR 3.1% · BB 6% · K 28% · BIP out 44% | Strikeout | 50.9% ▼ 6.3 |
| Bot 2 | Riley Greene vs Kirby Yates | Reach 34% 1B 15% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.4% · BB 11% · K 32% · BIP out 34% | Groundout | 57.1% ▼ 3.7 |
| Top 2 | Ronny Simon vs Justin Verlander | Reach 36% 1B 21% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.6% · HR 2.8% · BB 8% · K 19% · BIP out 45% | Flyout | 60.9% ▲ 7.2 |
| Top 2 | Spencer Horwitz vs Justin Verlander | Reach 34% 1B 17% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.2% · HR 4.0% · BB 9% · K 17% · BIP out 49% | Walk | 53.7% ▲ 3.4 |
| Top 2 | Konnor Griffin vs Justin Verlander | Reach 33% 1B 19% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.6% · HR 3.2% · BB 6% · K 24% · BIP out 43% | Single | 50.3% ▼ 3.1 |
| Top 2 | Oneil Cruz vs Justin Verlander | Reach 37% 1B 16% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.5% · HR 6.8% · BB 8% · K 30% · BIP out 32% | Strikeout | 53.4% ▲ 3.7 |
| Bot 1 | Eduardo Valencia vs Kirby Yates | Reach 34% 1B 17% · 2B 7% · 3B 0.3% · HR 2.6% · BB 7% · K 27% · BIP out 39% | Grounded Into DP | 49.7% ▼ 15.7 |
| Bot 1 | Kevin McGonigle vs Kirby Yates | Reach 36% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 1.8% · BB 13% · K 20% · BIP out 45% | Single | 65.4% ▲ 5.4 |
| Bot 1 | Hao-Yu Lee vs Kirby Yates | Reach 30% 1B 16% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.4% · HR 2.0% · BB 8% · K 29% · BIP out 40% | Single | 60.0% ▲ 7.1 |
| Bot 1 | Max Clark vs Kirby Yates | Reach 32% 1B 17% · 2B 4% · 3B 0.5% · HR 1.4% · BB 9% · K 26% · BIP out 42% | Lineout | 52.9% ▼ 5.7 |
| Top 1 | Bryan Reynolds vs Justin Verlander | Reach 36% 1B 17% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.5% · HR 3.9% · BB 10% · K 23% · BIP out 41% | Pop Out | 58.6% ▲ 4.6 |
| Top 1 | Brandon Lowe vs Justin Verlander | Reach 35% 1B 14% · 2B 6% · 3B 0.3% · HR 7.3% · BB 8% · K 28% · BIP out 37% | Pop Out | 54.0% ▼ 3.7 |
| Top 1 | Ryan O'Hearn vs Justin Verlander | Reach 34% 1B 16% · 2B 5% · 3B 0.4% · HR 5.7% · BB 7% · K 21% · BIP out 45% | Flyout | 57.7% |
The opening forecast is the 0-0 matchup distribution, not one random Monte Carlo draw. The at-the-plate panel and win probability re-simulate from the current count and game state after every pitch.
Pregame baseline
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers
Yates, Kirby vs Verlander, Justin · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
PIT 49.4%DET 50.6%
4.89 – 4.77mean score
9.66mean total
48%NRFI
9.2%extra innings
2.13 / 5.42starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
PIT (gold) vs DET (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
PIT per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O'Hearn, Ryan | 4.868 | 1.247 | 0.22 | 2.199 | 0.356 | 1.226 | 0.555 |
| Lowe, Brandon | 4.755 | 1.249 | 0.293 | 2.429 | 0.394 | 1.508 | 0.671 |
| Reynolds, Bryan | 4.647 | 1.175 | 0.134 | 1.849 | 0.486 | 1.226 | 0.492 |
| Cruz, Oneil | 4.541 | 1.217 | 0.247 | 2.257 | 0.416 | 1.581 | 0.757 |
| Griffin, Konnor | 4.441 | 1.132 | 0.107 | 1.697 | 0.266 | 1.25 | 0.533 |
| Horwitz, Spencer | 4.327 | 1.019 | 0.123 | 1.562 | 0.404 | 0.852 | 0.508 |
| Simon, Ronny | 4.219 | 1.138 | 0.087 | 1.617 | 0.339 | 0.917 | 0.468 |
| Gonzalez, Jacob | 4.115 | 0.928 | 0.132 | 1.508 | 0.245 | 0.946 | 0.483 |
| Davis, Henry | 3.99 | 0.757 | 0.146 | 1.344 | 0.314 | 0.989 | 0.426 |
Projected batting lines
DET per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark, Max | 4.772 | 1.203 | 0.076 | 1.724 | 0.518 | 1.193 | 0.402 |
| Lee, Hao-Yu | 4.66 | 1.141 | 0.106 | 1.73 | 0.442 | 1.31 | 0.5 |
| McGonigle, Kevin | 4.546 | 1.134 | 0.09 | 1.677 | 0.671 | 0.851 | 0.529 |
| Valencia, Eduardo | 4.437 | 1.299 | 0.136 | 2.072 | 0.341 | 1.167 | 0.763 |
| Greene, Riley | 4.325 | 1.082 | 0.129 | 1.751 | 0.556 | 1.307 | 0.628 |
| Dingler, Dillon | 4.223 | 1.039 | 0.174 | 1.84 | 0.304 | 1.116 | 0.677 |
| Torkelson, Spencer | 4.117 | 0.861 | 0.149 | 1.536 | 0.506 | 1.432 | 0.539 |
| McKinstry, Zach | 4.009 | 0.824 | 0.045 | 1.109 | 0.448 | 0.846 | 0.343 |
| Báez, Javier | 3.897 | 0.945 | 0.062 | 1.331 | 0.247 | 0.966 | 0.39 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Verlander, Justin: 1B
Lowe, Brandon vs Verlander, Justin: OUT GB
Reynolds, Bryan vs Verlander, Justin: BB
Cruz, Oneil vs Verlander, Justin: K
— Bottom 1 —
Clark, Max vs Yates, Kirby: K
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Yates, Kirby: 2B
McGonigle, Kevin vs Yates, Kirby: OUT AIR
Valencia, Eduardo vs Yates, Kirby: 2B +1 run (0-1)
Greene, Riley vs Yates, Kirby: BB
Dingler, Dillon vs Yates, Kirby: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Griffin, Konnor vs Verlander, Justin: 1B
Horwitz, Spencer vs Verlander, Justin: 2B +1 run (1-1)
Simon, Ronny vs Verlander, Justin: OUT AIR
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Verlander, Justin: HR +2 runs (3-1)
Davis, Henry vs Verlander, Justin: 1B
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Verlander, Justin: OUT AIR
Lowe, Brandon vs Verlander, Justin: K
— Bottom 2 —
Torkelson, Spencer vs Yates, Kirby: OUT GB
McKinstry, Zach vs Sisk, Evan: OUT AIR
Báez, Javier vs Sisk, Evan: K
— Top 3 —
Reynolds, Bryan vs Verlander, Justin: K
Cruz, Oneil vs Verlander, Justin: OUT AIR
Griffin, Konnor vs Verlander, Justin: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Clark, Max vs Sisk, Evan: OUT AIR
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Sisk, Evan: K
McGonigle, Kevin vs Ramírez, Yohan: 3B
Valencia, Eduardo vs Ramírez, Yohan: K
— Top 4 —
Horwitz, Spencer vs Verlander, Justin: OUT AIR
Simon, Ronny vs Verlander, Justin: 1B
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Verlander, Justin: 1B
Davis, Henry vs Verlander, Justin: OUT AIR
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Verlander, Justin: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Greene, Riley vs Ramírez, Yohan: BB
Dingler, Dillon vs Ramírez, Yohan: K
Torkelson, Spencer vs Dotel, Wilber: K
McKinstry, Zach vs Dotel, Wilber: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Lowe, Brandon vs Verlander, Justin: 1B
Reynolds, Bryan vs Verlander, Justin: 1B
Cruz, Oneil vs Verlander, Justin: OUT AIR
Griffin, Konnor vs Verlander, Justin: OUT AIR
Horwitz, Spencer vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: K
— Bottom 5 —
Báez, Javier vs Dotel, Wilber: BB
Clark, Max vs Dotel, Wilber: K
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Santana, Dennis: 1B
McGonigle, Kevin vs Santana, Dennis: OUT AIR
Valencia, Eduardo vs Santana, Dennis: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Simon, Ronny vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: OUT GB
Gonzalez, Jacob vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: OUT AIR
Davis, Henry vs De Jesus, Enmanuel: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Greene, Riley vs Santana, Dennis: OUT AIR
Dingler, Dillon vs Santana, Dennis: BB
Torkelson, Spencer vs Mattson, Isaac: BB
McKinstry, Zach vs Mattson, Isaac: 1B
Báez, Javier vs Mattson, Isaac: BB +1 run (3-2)
Clark, Max vs Mattson, Isaac: K
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Bidois, Brandan: K
— Top 7 —
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Smith, Burch: HR +1 run (4-2)
Lowe, Brandon vs Smith, Burch: 1B
Reynolds, Bryan vs Smith, Burch: K
Cruz, Oneil vs Smith, Burch: 1B
Griffin, Konnor vs Brieske, Beau: K
Horwitz, Spencer vs Brieske, Beau: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
McGonigle, Kevin vs Bidois, Brandan: BB
Valencia, Eduardo vs Bidois, Brandan: K
Greene, Riley vs Bidois, Brandan: OUT AIR
Dingler, Dillon vs Bidois, Brandan: K
— Top 8 —
Simon, Ronny vs Brieske, Beau: K
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Brieske, Beau: OUT GB
Davis, Henry vs Brieske, Beau: K
— Bottom 8 —
Torkelson, Spencer vs Bidois, Brandan: HR +1 run (4-3)
McKinstry, Zach vs Lawrence, Justin: OUT AIR
Báez, Javier vs Lawrence, Justin: HR +1 run (4-4)
Clark, Max vs Lawrence, Justin: 1B
Lee, Hao-Yu vs Lawrence, Justin: K
McGonigle, Kevin vs Soto, Gregory: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Sommers, Drew: K
Lowe, Brandon vs Sommers, Drew: 1B
Reynolds, Bryan vs Sommers, Drew: 1B
Cruz, Oneil vs Sommers, Drew: K
Griffin, Konnor vs Sommers, Drew: K
— Bottom 9 —
Valencia, Eduardo vs Soto, Gregory: 2B
Greene, Riley vs Soto, Gregory: K
Dingler, Dillon vs Soto, Gregory: K
Torkelson, Spencer vs Soto, Gregory: OUT AIR
— Top 10 —
Horwitz, Spencer vs Madden, Ty: BB
Simon, Ronny vs Madden, Ty: BB
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Madden, Ty: K
Davis, Henry vs Madden, Ty: OUT GB
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Madden, Ty: OUT GB
— Bottom 10 —
McKinstry, Zach vs Lawrence, Justin: K
Báez, Javier vs Lawrence, Justin: 2B +1 run (4-5)