Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

TEX at MIN

Nathan Eovaldi vs Bailey Ober · 4:10 PM ET

Scheduled 4:10 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean TEX or MIN?

The run projection leans TEX over MIN.

Projected runs: TEX 4.7, MIN 4.5. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs TEX 4.7 · MIN 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.3 · Market 7.5 model minus market +1.8 runs

Run line TEX -1.5 · MIN 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.0% · YRFI 52.0% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 30 Available in 30 player rows

Fangorn 3 Available in 3 player rows

Valinor 3 Available in 3 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

30 matched rows

Strikeouts · TEX vs MIN Nathan Eovaldi Over 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P75.3% F-- V49.8%

Model 75.3% Market 48.3% Model-market gap +27.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Evan Carter Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P28.3% F-- V--

Model 52.9% Market 29.4% Model-market gap +23.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Brandon Nimmo Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.1% F-- V--

Model 38.2% Market 21.5% Model-market gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Wyatt Langford Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.4% F-- V--

Model 39.5% Market 23.3% Model-market gap +16.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIN vs TEX Josh Bell Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.4% F-- V--

Model 41.0% Market 25.3% Model-market gap +15.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Jake Burger Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.9% F-- V--

Model 41.3% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +15.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Danny Jansen Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P20.6% F-- V--

Model 50.0% Market 44.4% Model-market gap +5.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIN vs TEX Victor Caratini Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.0% F-- V--

Model 50.0% Market 45.7% Model-market gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Josh Smith Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P23.3% F-- V--

Model 50.0% Market 45.7% Model-market gap +4.3 pts

Open board

Home runs · TEX vs MIN Evan Carter Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P15.4% F15.3% V11.2%

Model 15.1% Market 11.0% Model-market gap +4.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIN vs TEX Luke Keaschall Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P25.5% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 46.2% Model-market gap +3.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · TEX vs MIN Wyatt Langford Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P15.7% F15.3% V13.8%

Model 18.0% Market 14.4% Model-market gap +3.7 pts

Open board

Home runs · TEX vs MIN Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P16.2% F15.3% V14.4%

Model 19.2% Market 15.6% Model-market gap +3.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · TEX vs MIN Corey Seager Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P48.2% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 46.8% Model-market gap +3.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIN vs TEX Ryan Jeffers Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P25.0% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 47.2% Model-market gap +2.9 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · MIN vs TEX Bailey Ober Over 15.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.8% F-- V--

Model 47.8% Market 46.2% Model-market gap +1.6 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Minnesota win contract 45.5% Bid 45c · ask 46c

Texas win contract 54.5% Bid 54c · ask 55c

First inning run: Yes 47.0% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.