Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-26

Bailey Ober

MIN · SP · throws R · age 31
Projected starter Opp K 21.8% Neutral
MatchupMIN vs TEXopponent
Sample743.667career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 15 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts4.5
P 49.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.0% Market -- Gap +0.5pp
FanDuel -111 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs15.5
P 47.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.8% Market 49.5% Gap +1.6pp
FanDuel 102 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
55
ERA4.32
43
BB%7.1%
75
K%16.3%
13 -29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.325
34
Barrel allowed9.4%
21
Fastball velo88.2
1
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
58
Whiff%18.4%
15 -41 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Changeup Stuff+106
80
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+101
44
Curveball Stuff+103
Small sample
Sinker Stuff+99
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range17.5% to 27.4%
Opponent K21.8%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)