Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CWS
Score 81.9 | Lineup K 6.64
|
6.53 | 6.74 | +0.21 | 86.0% | 75.2% | 62.4% | 49.1% | 36.7% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs CIN
Score 76.2 | Lineup K 6.37
|
5.98 | 6.24 | +0.26 | 82.4% | 70.0% | 56.1% | 42.5% | 30.5% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs ATL
Score 63.6 | Lineup K 5.38
|
5.98 | 5.83 | -0.15 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs ATH
Score 53.3 | Lineup K 6.26
|
5.55 | 5.81 | +0.26 | 78.7% | 65.0% | 50.3% | 36.6% | 25.2% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs SD
Score 66.2 | Lineup K 5.63
|
5.58 | 5.67 | +0.09 | 77.3% | 63.1% | 48.3% | 34.7% | 23.5% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs CHC
Score 54.0 | Lineup K 5.49
|
5.54 | 5.54 | +0.00 | 76.0% | 61.4% | 46.4% | 32.9% | 22.0% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs STL
Score 50.2 | Lineup K 5.21
|
5.11 | 5.15 | +0.04 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
Ben Brown
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs TOR
Score 42.0 | Lineup K 4.79
|
5.14 | 4.99 | -0.15 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs HOU
Score 54.3 | Lineup K 5.37
|
4.59 | 4.88 | +0.29 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs LAA
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.68 | 4.78 | +0.10 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs SEA
Score 50.6 | Lineup K 5.61
|
4.25 | 4.73 | +0.48 | 66.0% | 49.4% | 34.1% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs MIN
Score 39.8 | Lineup K 4.64
|
4.65 | 4.61 | -0.04 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BOS
Score 43.7 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.43 | 4.59 | +0.16 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs MIA
Score 43.2 | Lineup K 4.63
|
4.26 | 4.37 | +0.11 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs PIT
Score 26.6 | Lineup K 4.31
|
4.05 | 4.06 | +0.01 | 55.5% | 38.1% | 23.9% | 13.9% | 7.6% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs DET
Score 31.6 | Lineup K 4.68
|
3.27 | 3.61 | +0.34 | 47.4% | 30.2% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs MIL
Score 20.9 | Lineup K 4.00
|
3.48 | 3.58 | +0.10 | 46.8% | 29.7% | 17.1% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs TB
Score 36.4 | Lineup K 4.21
|
3.04 | 3.37 | +0.33 | 42.7% | 26.0% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs TEX
Score 13.2 | Lineup K 3.48
|
3.10 | 3.14 | +0.04 | 38.1% | 22.1% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs KC
Score 27.4 | Lineup K 3.62
|
2.58 | 2.84 | +0.26 | 31.9% | 17.3% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.