{ "date": "2026-06-19", "generated_at": "2026-06-19T08:02:10.451520", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 20, "skipped_start_count": 7, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824264, "pitcher_id": 669373, "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "team_id": 116, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.74, "skill_score": 62.2, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.74, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "prob_4_plus": 0.8599, "prob_5_plus": 0.752, "prob_6_plus": 0.624, "prob_7_plus": 0.4911, "prob_8_plus": 0.3672, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 93.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 148.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "matchup_score": 91.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 161.6, "expected_contact_quality": 91.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 89.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.0, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 823534, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "prob_4_plus": 0.8242, "prob_5_plus": 0.7005, "prob_6_plus": 0.5615, "prob_7_plus": 0.425, "prob_8_plus": 0.3046, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.076, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 157.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Will Benson", "matchup_score": 88.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.6, "expected_contact_quality": 80.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "matchup_score": 83.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.0, "expected_contact_quality": 65.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824910, "pitcher_id": 694819, "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "team_id": 158, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.975, "prob_4_plus": 0.7888, "prob_5_plus": 0.652, "prob_6_plus": 0.5057, "prob_7_plus": 0.369, "prob_8_plus": 0.2542, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 89.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.1, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 76.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 153.1, "expected_contact_quality": 102.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 67.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 118.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824990, "pitcher_id": 667755, "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_id": 108, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_team_id": 133, "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 70.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "prob_4_plus": 0.7869, "prob_5_plus": 0.6495, "prob_6_plus": 0.5029, "prob_7_plus": 0.3662, "prob_8_plus": 0.2518, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.051, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Zack Gelof", "matchup_score": 83.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 172.6, "expected_contact_quality": 81.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Wynns", "matchup_score": 71.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.8, "expected_contact_quality": 74.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "matchup_score": 59.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 155.0, "expected_contact_quality": 142.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2408 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 822886, "pitcher_id": 594798, "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.67, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "prob_4_plus": 0.7733, "prob_5_plus": 0.6315, "prob_6_plus": 0.483, "prob_7_plus": 0.3469, "prob_8_plus": 0.2351, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 84.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 84.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.2, "expected_contact_quality": 84.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "matchup_score": 67.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.5, "expected_contact_quality": 77.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824663, "pitcher_id": 592332, "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "team_id": 141, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_team_id": 112, "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "prob_4_plus": 0.7599, "prob_5_plus": 0.6142, "prob_6_plus": 0.4641, "prob_7_plus": 0.329, "prob_8_plus": 0.2198, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Nico Hoerner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Seiya Suzuki", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alex Bregman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Shaw", "matchup_score": 65.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.8, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ian Happ", "matchup_score": 63.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.2, "expected_contact_quality": 81.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Carson Kelly", "matchup_score": 60.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 100.7, "expected_contact_quality": 71.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2165 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824097, "pitcher_id": 607625, "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "prob_4_plus": 0.7157, "prob_5_plus": 0.5588, "prob_6_plus": 0.4059, "prob_7_plus": 0.2755, "prob_8_plus": 0.1758, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 69.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 120.9, "expected_contact_quality": 80.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 61.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.8, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "matchup_score": 58.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.9, "expected_contact_quality": 72.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824663, "pitcher_id": 676962, "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "prob_4_plus": 0.6956, "prob_5_plus": 0.5346, "prob_6_plus": 0.3814, "prob_7_plus": 0.254, "prob_8_plus": 0.1588, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "temperature_f": 71.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.016, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 56.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 135.9, "expected_contact_quality": 116.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.6, "expected_contact_quality": 88.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 50.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 92.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824179, "pitcher_id": 676440, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "team_id": 114, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_team_id": 117, "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "prob_4_plus": 0.6811, "prob_5_plus": 0.5175, "prob_6_plus": 0.3646, "prob_7_plus": 0.2394, "prob_8_plus": 0.1475, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.994, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Joey Loperfido", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Meyers", "matchup_score": 62.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.8, "expected_contact_quality": 62.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "matchup_score": 61.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.4, "expected_contact_quality": 99.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2028 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824990, "pitcher_id": 605488, "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_id": 133, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "prob_4_plus": 0.6675, "prob_5_plus": 0.5017, "prob_6_plus": 0.3491, "prob_7_plus": 0.2263, "prob_8_plus": 0.1376, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.051, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Lowe", "matchup_score": 59.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.6, "expected_contact_quality": 64.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "matchup_score": 55.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.3, "expected_contact_quality": 75.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 47.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 110.6, "expected_contact_quality": 98.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 823124, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.113, "prob_4_plus": 0.6605, "prob_5_plus": 0.4937, "prob_6_plus": 0.3414, "prob_7_plus": 0.2198, "prob_8_plus": 0.1327, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.959, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 72.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.0, "expected_contact_quality": 98.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.7, "expected_contact_quality": 76.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 52.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 106.6, "expected_contact_quality": 96.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 825069, "pitcher_id": 647336, "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.0, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 52.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.8, "expected_contact_quality": 102.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 51.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.5, "expected_contact_quality": 73.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 46.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.4, "expected_contact_quality": 88.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 823124, "pitcher_id": 682243, "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 111, "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.959, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Triston Casas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Carlos Narv\u00e1ez", "matchup_score": 70.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 75.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "matchup_score": 53.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.4, "expected_contact_quality": 105.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "matchup_score": 52.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.2, "expected_contact_quality": 88.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2353 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 823853, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 39.1, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.025, "prob_4_plus": 0.6067, "prob_5_plus": 0.4342, "prob_6_plus": 0.2861, "prob_7_plus": 0.1749, "prob_8_plus": 0.1, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.944, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 60.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 119.9, "expected_contact_quality": 63.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 53.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.6, "expected_contact_quality": 98.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "matchup_score": 47.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.1, "expected_contact_quality": 110.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824345, "pitcher_id": 607536, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 134, "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "prob_4_plus": 0.5555, "prob_5_plus": 0.3808, "prob_6_plus": 0.2394, "prob_7_plus": 0.1393, "prob_8_plus": 0.0756, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "temperature_f": 71.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.083, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "matchup_score": 35.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.2, "expected_contact_quality": 110.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Mangum", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 60.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "matchup_score": 33.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 71.9, "expected_contact_quality": 77.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2412 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824264, "pitcher_id": 607200, "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 116, "opponent_abbr": "DET", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 39.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "prob_4_plus": 0.4738, "prob_5_plus": 0.3019, "prob_6_plus": 0.1754, "prob_7_plus": 0.0939, "prob_8_plus": 0.0468, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.965, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kerry Carpenter", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Matt Vierling", "matchup_score": 42.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 90.0, "expected_contact_quality": 68.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach McKinstry", "matchup_score": 39.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 84.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Dillon Dingler", "matchup_score": 37.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.5, "expected_contact_quality": 103.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2409 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824910, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 158, "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.58, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "prob_4_plus": 0.4681, "prob_5_plus": 0.2967, "prob_6_plus": 0.1713, "prob_7_plus": 0.0912, "prob_8_plus": 0.0451, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.003, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jackson Chourio", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Andrew Vaughn", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "matchup_score": 32.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 75.7, "expected_contact_quality": 67.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Sal Frelick", "matchup_score": 31.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 61.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Bauers", "matchup_score": 27.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 107.9, "expected_contact_quality": 133.6 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2214 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 822966, "pitcher_id": 676917, "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "team_id": 120, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.37, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "prob_4_plus": 0.4271, "prob_5_plus": 0.2602, "prob_6_plus": 0.144, "prob_7_plus": 0.0733, "prob_8_plus": 0.0347, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.022, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 61.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.4, "expected_contact_quality": 83.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Walls", "matchup_score": 43.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.9, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "matchup_score": 40.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 88.8, "expected_contact_quality": 81.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 822886, "pitcher_id": 681190, "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.14, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.14, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "prob_4_plus": 0.3809, "prob_5_plus": 0.2211, "prob_6_plus": 0.1163, "prob_7_plus": 0.0561, "prob_8_plus": 0.0251, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 13.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.987, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Josh Smith", "matchup_score": 27.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 59.5, "expected_contact_quality": 73.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "matchup_score": 22.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 67.0, "expected_contact_quality": 88.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 20.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 77.7, "expected_contact_quality": 96.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "game_pk": 824097, "pitcher_id": 700241, "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.1, "prob_4_plus": 0.3192, "prob_5_plus": 0.1726, "prob_6_plus": 0.0842, "prob_7_plus": 0.0376, "prob_8_plus": 0.0156, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.62, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.976, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 39.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 80.7, "expected_contact_quality": 66.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 39.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 85.9, "expected_contact_quality": 86.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 35.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 69.6, "expected_contact_quality": 66.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 695076, "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 643377, "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 837227, "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 696149, "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 687570, "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 808963, "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 694346, "pitcher_name": "Trey Gibson", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }