Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-08 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-08
41 matched props 20 unmatched
Newer: 2026-09-09 Older: 2026-09-07

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 41
Grouped Pitchers 14
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 20
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-08 | Raw sportsbook rows: 41 | Grouped pitcher entries: 14 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-08/strikeout_edges_2026-09-08.json
Corbin Burnes headshot

Corbin Burnes
AZ vs KC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.15
Strongest Gap Over +31.08%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +147 / U -174
Over gap +31.08% / Under gap -35.07%
Over +31.08%
FanDuel
2.5
O -174 / U +136
Over gap +21.62% / Under gap -27.49%
Over +21.62%
BetMGM
2.5
O -225 / U +140
Over gap +15.89% / Under gap -26.79%
Over +15.89%
Model O 71.6% | U 28.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.3
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs PIT | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.20
Strongest Gap Under +28.94%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -101 / U -125
Over gap -34.75% / Under gap +28.94%
Under +28.94%
FanDuel
6.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -34.00% / Under gap +27.98%
Under +27.98%
BetMGM
6.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -34.50% / Under gap +27.05%
Under +27.05%
Model O 15.5% | U 84.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.7
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs CHC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.11
Strongest Gap Under +22.96%
Best Line 8.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
8.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -29.13% / Under gap +22.96%
Under +22.96%
FanDuel
8.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -27.32% / Under gap +21.24%
Under +21.24%
BetMGM
8.5
O +105 / U -150
Over gap -29.37% / Under gap +20.59%
Under +20.59%
Model O 19.4% | U 80.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.4
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.34
Strongest Gap Under +19.75%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -25.92% / Under gap +19.75%
Under +19.75%
BetMGM
7.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -26.62% / Under gap +19.51%
Under +19.51%
FanDuel
7.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -24.81% / Under gap +18.79%
Under +18.79%
Model O 31.7% | U 68.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 77.0
Nick Lodolo headshot

Nick Lodolo
CIN vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.06
Strongest Gap Over +9.82%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap +9.82% / Under gap -15.90%
Over +9.82%
DraftKings
3.5
O -162 / U +128
Over gap +8.62% / Under gap -14.31%
Over +8.62%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap +8.02% / Under gap -15.31%
Over +8.02%
Model O 70.5% | U 29.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.8
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.64
Strongest Gap Under +8.91%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -16.02% / Under gap +8.91%
Under +8.91%
DraftKings
5.5
O +135 / U -161
Over gap -9.79% / Under gap +5.55%
Under +5.55%
FanDuel
5.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap -10.34% / Under gap +4.28%
Under +4.28%
Model O 32.8% | U 67.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.0
Hayden Wesneski headshot

Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs PHI | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.32
Strongest Gap Over +4.92%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -122 / U -105
Over gap +4.92% / Under gap -11.09%
Over +4.92%
FanDuel
3.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap +3.35% / Under gap -9.37%
Over +3.35%
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap +2.42% / Under gap -9.87%
Over +2.42%
Model O 59.9% | U 40.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.2
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs CLE | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.67
Strongest Gap Under +3.86%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -11.48% / Under gap +3.86%
Under +3.86%
FanDuel
3.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -9.11% / Under gap +2.94%
Under +2.94%
DraftKings
3.5
O -133 / U +105
Over gap -8.56% / Under gap +2.70%
Under +2.70%
Model O 48.5% | U 51.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.6
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs AZ | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.59
Strongest Gap Over +3.23%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap +3.23% / Under gap -9.21%
Over +3.23%
DraftKings
4.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +2.04% / Under gap -8.03%
Over +2.04%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap -1.69% / Under gap -6.27%
No Play
Model O 47.1% | U 52.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.4
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs NYM | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.12
Strongest Gap Over +3.05%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -110 / U -116
Over gap +3.05% / Under gap -9.13%
Over +3.05%
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -125
Over gap +3.05% / Under gap -10.99%
Over +3.05%
FanDuel
4.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +2.38% / Under gap -8.48%
Over +2.38%
Model O 55.4% | U 44.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.2
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs MIA | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.04
Strongest Gap Under +2.24%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +112 / U -143
Over gap -8.26% / Under gap +2.24%
Under +2.24%
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -6.54% / Under gap +0.46%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -6.54% / Under gap -0.45%
No Play
Model O 38.9% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.3
David Peterson headshot

David Peterson
CHC vs MIL | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.58
Strongest Gap Over +1.88%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +1.88% / Under gap -7.87%
Over +1.88%
DraftKings
4.5
O +113 / U -148
Over gap -0.02% / Under gap -6.61%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -1.85% / Under gap -5.26%
No Play
Model O 46.9% | U 53.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.0
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs BAL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.08
Strongest Gap No Play +1.46%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap -7.43% / Under gap +1.46%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -6.99% / Under gap -0.30%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap -5.12% / Under gap -1.06%
No Play
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.6
Aj Smith-Shawver headshot

Aj Smith-Shawver
ATL vs TB | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 4.17
Strongest Gap No Play -0.21%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -136 / U +105
Over gap -0.21% / Under gap -6.20%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -0.91% / Under gap -5.04%
No Play
Model O 57.4% | U 42.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.5

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.