Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta

COL 9, CWS 6. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

COL 9, CWS 6

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate

Final
9 – 6final score
15total runs
63% → 0%CWS win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox

Quintana, Jose vs Martin, Davis · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-09-26
COL 36.5%CWS 63.5%
4.08 – 5.21mean score
9.29mean total
49%NRFI
9.0%extra innings
4.34 / 5.02starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

COL (gold) vs CWS (cyan)

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Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

COL per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
McCarthy, Jake 4.7791.3540.081 1.9640.270.8990.404
Carrigg, Cole 4.6611.1640.092 1.7410.3731.1980.458
Goodman, Hunter 4.5511.0410.188 1.9240.3631.4180.632
Rumfield, TJ 4.4431.1560.075 1.6240.4460.7370.486
Norby, Connor 4.3380.990.07 1.4150.4051.2730.423
Amador, Adael 4.241.0010.115 1.5940.3780.8370.497
Moniak, Mickey 4.130.8870.124 1.5070.2291.210.478
Sullivan, Brett 4.0190.8970.084 1.3710.2510.8020.404
Tovar, Ezequiel 3.8980.7890.065 1.140.2591.0950.301
Projected batting lines

CWS per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Vargas, Miguel 4.7491.2280.197 2.1480.5910.7780.656
Pham, Tommy 4.6361.1230.144 1.7720.4631.0310.566
Grichuk, Randal 4.5251.3770.184 2.3420.2540.8720.746
Murakami, Munetaka 4.4110.9780.239 1.9680.6391.3340.714
Doyle, Brenton 4.3051.2140.084 1.6990.281.0840.538
Teel, Kyle 4.1981.0310.123 1.6270.4291.1110.539
Antonacci, Sam 4.0941.2410.059 1.6650.3050.570.511
Acuña, Luisangel 3.9831.0480.043 1.3170.2280.7110.408
Peters, Tristan 3.8641.1040.09 1.6390.2750.6580.53
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
McCarthy, Jake vs Martin, Davis: OUT GB
Carrigg, Cole vs Martin, Davis: K
Goodman, Hunter vs Martin, Davis: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Vargas, Miguel vs Quintana, Jose: 1B
Pham, Tommy vs Quintana, Jose: OUT GB
Grichuk, Randal vs Quintana, Jose: OUT AIR
Murakami, Munetaka vs Quintana, Jose: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Rumfield, TJ vs Martin, Davis: 2B
Norby, Connor vs Martin, Davis: BB
Amador, Adael vs Martin, Davis: OUT AIR
Moniak, Mickey vs Martin, Davis: K
Sullivan, Brett vs Martin, Davis: K
— Bottom 2 —
Doyle, Brenton vs Quintana, Jose: 1B
Teel, Kyle vs Quintana, Jose: 1B
Antonacci, Sam vs Quintana, Jose: 1B
Acuña, Luisangel vs Quintana, Jose: OUT GB +1 run (0-1)
Peters, Tristan vs Quintana, Jose: OUT AIR
Vargas, Miguel vs Quintana, Jose: HR +3 runs (0-4)
Pham, Tommy vs Quintana, Jose: 1B
Grichuk, Randal vs Quintana, Jose: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Martin, Davis: OUT AIR
McCarthy, Jake vs Martin, Davis: 1B
Carrigg, Cole vs Martin, Davis: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Murakami, Munetaka vs Quintana, Jose: OUT AIR
Doyle, Brenton vs Quintana, Jose: K
Teel, Kyle vs Quintana, Jose: K
— Top 4 —
Goodman, Hunter vs Martin, Davis: OUT AIR
Rumfield, TJ vs Martin, Davis: OUT AIR
Norby, Connor vs Martin, Davis: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Antonacci, Sam vs Quintana, Jose: K
Acuña, Luisangel vs Quintana, Jose: K
Peters, Tristan vs Quintana, Jose: 1B
Vargas, Miguel vs Quintana, Jose: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Amador, Adael vs Martin, Davis: 1B
Moniak, Mickey vs Martin, Davis: 1B
Sullivan, Brett vs Martin, Davis: 1B
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Martin, Davis: OUT AIR
McCarthy, Jake vs Martin, Davis: K
Carrigg, Cole vs Martin, Davis: 1B +2 runs (2-4)
Goodman, Hunter vs Martin, Davis: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Pham, Tommy vs Quintana, Jose: OUT GB
Grichuk, Randal vs Quintana, Jose: OUT GB
Murakami, Munetaka vs Quintana, Jose: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Rumfield, TJ vs Martin, Davis: OUT AIR
Norby, Connor vs Urquidy, José: K
Amador, Adael vs Urquidy, José: BB
Moniak, Mickey vs Urquidy, José: K
— Bottom 6 —
Doyle, Brenton vs Quintana, Jose: 1B
Teel, Kyle vs Quintana, Jose: OUT AIR
Antonacci, Sam vs Quintana, Jose: OUT GB
Acuña, Luisangel vs Quintana, Jose: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Sullivan, Brett vs Urquidy, José: HR +1 run (3-4)
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Hicks, Jordan: BB
McCarthy, Jake vs Hicks, Jordan: OUT AIR
Carrigg, Cole vs Hicks, Jordan: K
Goodman, Hunter vs Hicks, Jordan: K
— Bottom 7 —
Peters, Tristan vs Frasso, Nick: 1B
Vargas, Miguel vs Frasso, Nick: BB
Pham, Tommy vs Frasso, Nick: OUT GB
Grichuk, Randal vs Frasso, Nick: K
— Top 8 —
Rumfield, TJ vs Hicks, Jordan: BB
Norby, Connor vs Hicks, Jordan: K
Amador, Adael vs Richards, Trevor: 1B
Moniak, Mickey vs Richards, Trevor: OUT AIR
Sullivan, Brett vs Richards, Trevor: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Murakami, Munetaka vs Frasso, Nick: K
Doyle, Brenton vs Thompson, Keegan: 1B
Teel, Kyle vs Thompson, Keegan: K
Antonacci, Sam vs Thompson, Keegan: 1B
Acuña, Luisangel vs Thompson, Keegan: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Richards, Trevor: HR +1 run (4-4)
McCarthy, Jake vs Richards, Trevor: OUT AIR
Carrigg, Cole vs Smith, Hagen: 2B
Goodman, Hunter vs Smith, Hagen: K
Rumfield, TJ vs Smith, Hagen: OUT GB
— Bottom 9 —
Peters, Tristan vs Shook, TJ: HR +1 run (4-5)