Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	279	40	74	12	0	.291	.348	.528	.876
2025	293	35	62	9	0	.228	.273	.401	.674
2026	278	40	75	14	0	.285	.313	.555	.868
13 Seasons	5111	651	1201	226	27	.252	.299	.470	.769

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

86

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

74

Defense4 metrics

51

Speed1 metrics

47

Plate skills10 metrics

28

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27

xwOBA preseason	0.311
xwOBA current pace	0.332
xwOBA rolling p50	0.323
Observed weight	57%

xwOBA

0.296 0.309 0.323 0.337 0.350

wOBA

0.351 0.368 0.387 0.406 0.423

ISO

0.186 0.203 0.221 0.239 0.256

K%

18.3% 19.8% 21.5% 23.1% 24.6%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.7%

86 +18 vs proj

Exit velocity91.1

89

Hard-hit%49.3%

93 +18 vs proj

xBA0.360

88

xSLG0.615

83

xwOBA0.332

79 +19 vs proj

BB%4.4%

10 -16 vs proj

Bat speed72.5

85

K%21.5%

58

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-0.5 · LF

41

Arm Strength91.3 · LF

28

Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF

88

Range Runs0.0 · LF

46

Baserunning · percentile strip

Sprint Speed27.3 · LF

47

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-27

Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.2% · rebadged research

38

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research

47

Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research

52

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.334 · borderline

5

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample

14

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample

28

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample

35

Resists FastballwOBA 0.377 · validated

9

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated

17

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99

39

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Randal Grichuk's tools (86) outpace production (80) by 6 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Chase Rate Problem.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Chase Rate Problem

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Pitch recognition training and two-strike approach adjustment

Protected takes / Chase risk

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

145 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.9σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.387

xwOBA (deserved)0.332

Grichuk’s wOBA sits at 0.387, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.332 — a gap of 0.056, -1.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 297 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	5	2026-09-22	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	8	2026-09-26	7 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +2.428

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-2 \| 2B, R
2026-05-20 @ SEA1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-1 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, K, R
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| BB, R

Age	35
Height	6' 0"
Weight	210 lb
Debut	2014-04-28

xwOBA Δ	+0.020
wOBA Δ	+0.076

Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA \| 13 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ DET0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	2-2 \| 2B, R
2026-05-20 @ SEA1 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-1 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-04-15 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-0
2026-04-14 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, K, R
2026-04-13 vs LAA0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-1 \| BB, R

Randal Grichuk

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Module shelf

Available detail