Mithrandir Metrics
Player Colorado Rockies Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Colorado Rockies

Brett Sullivan

C · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 190 lb · Age 32

Cards
1
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Colorado Rockies Position C Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2024171310.188.235.375.610
202591100.167.333.167.500
202610062130.226.263.387.650
4 Seasons212154250.214.256.337.593
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
13
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
16
Defense4 metrics
25
Speed1 metrics
69
Plate skills13 metrics
38
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
xwOBA preseason0.290
xwOBA current pace0.243
xwOBA rolling p500.275
Observed weight32%
xwOBA
0.220 0.246 0.275 0.304 0.329
wOBA
0.262 0.289 0.320 0.351 0.378
ISO
0.070 0.104 0.141 0.179 0.213
K%
15.9% 18.8% 22.1% 25.3% 28.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
12
Exit velocity86.2
25
Hard-hit%30.8%
17
xBA0.269
10
xSLG0.368
7
xwOBA0.243
5
BB%3.8%
7
Bat speed64.1
4
K%21.0%
56
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
35
Catcher Throwing-0.6 · C
20
Framing Runs-1.9 · C
22
Pop Time2.0 · C
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.0 · C
69
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-12
Avoids Bad ChasesST 56.8% · rebadged research
14
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3% · rebadged research
30
Changeup Stuff+78
0
Correct Decisions61.3% · rebadged research
12
Mithrandir Stuff+71
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
84
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331 · validated
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381 · validated
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Slider Stuff+76
0
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Sullivan, Brett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.312 0.243 2026-06-01: 0.2412026-06-02: 0.2412026-06-03: 0.2412026-06-04: 0.2412026-06-05: 0.2412026-06-06: 0.2412026-06-07: 0.2412026-06-08: 0.2392026-06-09: 0.2392026-06-10: 0.2392026-06-11: 0.2392026-06-12: 0.243 2026-06-01 2026-06-12 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 64%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Sullivan, Brett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 38%38%Whiff: 18%18%Zone contact: 89%89%Contact: 82%82%Hard hit: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sullivan, Brett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 64.4%Changeup: 33.9%Curveball: 1.7% SL64% · 58 mphprimary pitch SL 64%CH 34%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sullivan, Brett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ Slider: 64% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 68″ drop, 58.0 mphSL58 mphChangeup: 34% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 66.4 mphCH66 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 74″ drop, 56.4 mphCU56 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 64.4% 38 76 limited sample
CH 33.9% 20 78 limited sample
CB 1.7% 1 80 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height5' 11"
Weight190 lb
Debut2023-04-18
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.021
wOBA Δ+0.056

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-2.0σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.320
xwOBA (deserved)0.243

Sullivan’s wOBA sits at 0.320, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.243 — a gap of 0.077, -2.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 105 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting12026-04-29Impact contact was the main driver
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.264 xwOBA | 6 HRProjection
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 1 E0-3
2026-04-20 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E2-4
2026-04-17 vs LAD0 HR | 0 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E0-3 | K
2026-04-15 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-1 | K
2026-04-14 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E0-0