{ "schema": "mithrandir.strikeout_props", "schema_version": 2, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "date": "2026-09-24", "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-24T23:44:06.920231", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 12, "skipped_start_count": 12, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 823895, "pitcher_id": 607192, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "team_id": 119, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_team_id": 135, "opponent_abbr": "SD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.37, "skill_score": 70.7, "opportunity_score": 45.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.37, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8342, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.7147, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5784, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4425, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.3209, "prob_4_plus": 0.8342, "prob_5_plus": 0.7147, "prob_6_plus": 0.5784, "prob_7_plus": 0.4425, "prob_8_plus": 0.3209, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Laureano", "matchup_score": 91.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.0, "expected_contact_quality": 75.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "matchup_score": 90.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.5, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "matchup_score": 74.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.0, "expected_contact_quality": 94.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1914 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 823326, "pitcher_id": 694973, "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_id": 134, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "skill_score": 28.7, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.11, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.8136, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6857, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5443, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.4074, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2885, "prob_4_plus": 0.8136, "prob_5_plus": 0.6857, "prob_6_plus": 0.5443, "prob_7_plus": 0.4074, "prob_8_plus": 0.2885, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.43, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.899, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 96.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 154.6, "expected_contact_quality": 63.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 93.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 163.0, "expected_contact_quality": 85.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Pedro Pag\u00e9s", "matchup_score": 86.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 823493, "pitcher_id": 693645, "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 139, "opponent_abbr": "TB", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "skill_score": 66.8, "opportunity_score": 56.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.975, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7962, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6619, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.5169, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.38, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2639, "prob_4_plus": 0.7962, "prob_5_plus": 0.6619, "prob_6_plus": 0.5169, "prob_7_plus": 0.38, "prob_8_plus": 0.2639, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.8, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.988, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Cedric Mullins", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Justyn-Henry Malloy", "matchup_score": 85.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 149.3, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "matchup_score": 77.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.2, "expected_contact_quality": 70.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "matchup_score": 76.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 133.2, "expected_contact_quality": 64.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2362 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 823087, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 108, "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 53.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "skill_score": 35.4, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.76, "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.125, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7821, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.6431, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4958, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3593, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2458, "prob_4_plus": 0.7821, "prob_5_plus": 0.6431, "prob_6_plus": 0.4958, "prob_7_plus": 0.3593, "prob_8_plus": 0.2458, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.57, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 53.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.929, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "matchup_score": 88.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 145.6, "expected_contact_quality": 75.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Travis d'Arnaud", "matchup_score": 85.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.7, "expected_contact_quality": 62.8 }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "matchup_score": 83.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.0, "expected_contact_quality": 78.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.254 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 823895, "pitcher_id": 601713, "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "team_id": 135, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_team_id": 119, "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "skill_score": 36.8, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.39, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.7437, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5935, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.4419, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.3083, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.2025, "prob_4_plus": 0.7437, "prob_5_plus": 0.5935, "prob_6_plus": 0.4419, "prob_7_plus": 0.3083, "prob_8_plus": 0.2025, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27855.0, "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 1.4, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Tucker", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "matchup_score": 71.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.4, "expected_contact_quality": 64.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 62.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 142.1, "expected_contact_quality": 123.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Alex Call", "matchup_score": 62.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.5, "expected_contact_quality": 81.4 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 824623, "pitcher_id": 571510, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "team_id": 112, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_team_id": 146, "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 47.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6943, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5331, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3799, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2527, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1578, "prob_4_plus": 0.6943, "prob_5_plus": 0.5331, "prob_6_plus": 0.3799, "prob_7_plus": 0.2527, "prob_8_plus": 0.1578, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "temperature_f": 63.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.961, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Agust\u00edn Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Christopher Morel", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Heriberto Hern\u00e1ndez", "matchup_score": 68.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 81.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Connor Norby", "matchup_score": 65.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 115.9, "expected_contact_quality": 68.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Stowers", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.4, "expected_contact_quality": 114.9 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2155 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 824707, "pitcher_id": 624133, "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 114, "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 48.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 17.2, "opportunity_score": 56.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "prob_4_plus": 0.6851, "prob_5_plus": 0.5222, "prob_6_plus": 0.3692, "prob_7_plus": 0.2434, "prob_8_plus": 0.1506, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "temperature_f": 48.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.01, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.968, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "David Fry", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Gabriel Arias", "matchup_score": 81.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.4, "expected_contact_quality": 83.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.2, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Jones", "matchup_score": 70.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 121.7, "expected_contact_quality": 65.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2082 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 824298, "pitcher_id": 593958, "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "team_id": 109, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_team_id": 115, "opponent_abbr": "COL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "skill_score": 26.3, "opportunity_score": 71.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 18.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.61, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.127, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "prob_4_plus": 0.6432, "prob_5_plus": 0.4742, "prob_6_plus": 0.3229, "prob_7_plus": 0.2045, "prob_8_plus": 0.1213, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.84, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.13, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "matchup_score": 68.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Beck", "matchup_score": 68.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Mickey Moniak", "matchup_score": 64.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 128.1, "expected_contact_quality": 90.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2611 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 824866, "pitcher_id": 641816, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 113, "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 22.3, "opportunity_score": 59.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 38.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.41, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.202, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "prob_4_plus": 0.6403, "prob_5_plus": 0.4709, "prob_6_plus": 0.3198, "prob_7_plus": 0.202, "prob_8_plus": 0.1195, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.962, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "matchup_score": 64.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.3, "expected_contact_quality": 85.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Noelvi Marte", "matchup_score": 59.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.4, "expected_contact_quality": 65.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt McLain", "matchup_score": 57.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.4, "expected_contact_quality": 84.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2389 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 824866, "pitcher_id": 663903, "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "team_id": 113, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "skill_score": 16.5, "opportunity_score": 59.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.6051, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4325, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2846, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1737, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0992, "prob_4_plus": 0.6051, "prob_5_plus": 0.4325, "prob_6_plus": 0.2846, "prob_7_plus": 0.1737, "prob_8_plus": 0.0992, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "temperature_f": 64.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.962, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 66.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.1, "expected_contact_quality": 83.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 48.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.1, "expected_contact_quality": 69.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "matchup_score": 42.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 123.0, "expected_contact_quality": 143.7 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 822842, "pitcher_id": 677958, "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 93.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "skill_score": 27.0, "opportunity_score": 27.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.589, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.4154, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.2694, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.1619, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.091, "prob_4_plus": 0.589, "prob_5_plus": 0.4154, "prob_6_plus": 0.2694, "prob_7_plus": 0.1619, "prob_8_plus": 0.091, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "temperature_f": 93.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.991, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 49.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.6, "expected_contact_quality": 116.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Mark Vientos", "matchup_score": 38.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.8, "expected_contact_quality": 149.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 38.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.4, "expected_contact_quality": 127.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "game_pk": 824298, "pitcher_id": 685299, "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "team_id": 115, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_team_id": 109, "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 43.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.66, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.916, "strikeout_epoch": "strikeout_v2_2026-08-09", "probability_semantics": "final_starter_strikeouts_at_least_threshold", "calibration_status": "tracking_identity", "calibration_version": null, "raw_prob_4_plus": 0.4833, "raw_prob_5_plus": 0.3107, "raw_prob_6_plus": 0.1822, "raw_prob_7_plus": 0.0985, "raw_prob_8_plus": 0.0496, "prob_4_plus": 0.4833, "prob_5_plus": 0.3107, "prob_6_plus": 0.1822, "prob_7_plus": 0.0985, "prob_8_plus": 0.0496, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.28, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.13, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Lourdes Gurriel Jr.", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "matchup_score": 33.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 49.7, "expected_contact_quality": 68.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "matchup_score": 29.1, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 67.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.4 }, { "hitter_name": "Adrian Del Castillo", "matchup_score": 26.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 103.6, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2063 }, "captured_at": "2026-09-25T03:44:06.920042+00:00" } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 681517, "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 677976, "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 689818, "pitcher_name": "David Sandlin", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663969, "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 804267, "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 691725, "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 682982, "pitcher_name": "Daniel Espino", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 693855, "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 686930, "pitcher_name": "Mason Barnett", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 663567, "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 680570, "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }