Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Crochet
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CIN | 7.06 | 30.4% | 32.0% | 22.4% | 18.4 | 10 | 0 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs SD | 6.45 | 29.9% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CLE | 6.33 | 28.9% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 6.32 | 27.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs NYM | 5.98 | 28.7% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 0 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAA | 5.91 | 26.3% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 17.4 | 10 | 0 |
Nick Pivetta
Probable starter
|
SD vs DET | 5.76 | 25.9% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 0 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PIT | 5.75 | 26.9% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 0 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TEX | 5.71 | 24.1% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 0 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CWS | 5.48 | 28.5% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 0 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BAL | 5.25 | 26.8% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs PHI | 5.14 | 24.6% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 0 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs SEA | 5.13 | 22.6% | 23.0% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 0 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.90 | 22.4% | 21.4% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs WSH | 4.67 | 22.4% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs BOS | 4.59 | 21.3% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 0 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs MIN | 4.54 | 22.1% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
Shane Smith
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIL | 4.34 | 23.2% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs TB | 4.10 | 20.1% | 21.4% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs HOU | 3.93 | 21.2% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CHC | 3.49 | 19.7% | 18.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs STL | 3.35 | 21.8% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.