Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home runs · three lanes per row.

Every hitter in the saved HR market-comparison artifact, shown as a dense baseball-data board. The strip compares Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor; the chips disclose lineup, health, sample-size, park, weather, and recent-form context.

Rows
44
Matched
153
Lineups
108
HR BOARD 2026-06-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 9.3%market +8.2pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 17.9%Fangorn 11.0%market +6.6pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
 17.2%Fangorn 11.7%market +5.1pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
04
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 12.5%market +4.9pp
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
05
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 13.0%market +4.4pp
P 18.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.3pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
06
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 13.3%market +4.1pp
P 18.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.0pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
07
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 9.8%market +4.0pp
P 13.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
08
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 14.2%Fangorn 10.1%market +3.8pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
09
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 13.9%market +3.4pp
P 21.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.5pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
10
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 15.7%Fangorn 12.4%market +2.8pp
P 17.6
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
11
Wyatt Langford TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 14.4%market +2.3pp
P 20.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
12
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6
 13.4%Fangorn 10.9%market +2.1pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.9pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
13
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 17.9%Fangorn 15.6%market +1.7pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
14
Willi Castro COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
 11.4%Fangorn 9.8%market +1.3pp
P 11.4
F 11.4
V 11.4
0.0pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
15
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 17.2%Fangorn 15.6%market +0.9pp
P 20.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
16
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 17.2%Fangorn 15.9%market +0.7pp
P 20.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
17
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 16.9%market +0.4pp
P 21.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.7pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
18
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 11.4%Fangorn 11.1%market -0.1pp
P 20.4
F 11.4
V 11.4
9.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
19
Andy Pages LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7
 13.4%Fangorn 13.4%market -0.5pp
P 17.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
4.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
20
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 11.4%Fangorn 13.3%market -2.4pp
P 13.8
F 11.4
V 11.4
2.4pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
21
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 17.2%Fangorn 28.4%market -12.2pp
P 17.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
22
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 15.7%Fangorn 7.7%market +7.7pp
P 13.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.4pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
23
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 14.2%Fangorn 10.0%market +3.9pp
P 14.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
24
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 6
 11.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 9.9
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.5pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
25
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 19.6%Fangorn 16.4%market +2.5pp
P 21.3
F 19.6
V 19.6
1.7pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
26
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 12.5%market +1.2pp
P 14.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
27
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
 17.2%Fangorn 15.8%market +0.8pp
P 15.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.4pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
28
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 16.4%market +0.8pp
P 20.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
29
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 17.2%Fangorn 16.2%market +0.4pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
30
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
 19.6%Fangorn 19.3%market -0.4pp
P 20.8
F 19.6
V 19.6
1.2pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
31
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 14.2%Fangorn 14.3%market -0.6pp
P 13.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
32
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 17.9%market -0.6pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
33
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
 11.1%Fangorn --market -2.0pp
P 13.7
F 11.1
V 11.1
2.6pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
34
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
 15.7%Fangorn 17.4%market -2.3pp
P 16.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.7pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
35
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 17.9%Fangorn 20.3%market -3.1pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
36
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1
 4.7%Fangorn 7.7%market -3.3pp
P 6.8
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.0pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 4.7%Fangorn 7.7%market -3.3pp
P 7.1
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.4pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
38
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 2
 17.9%Fangorn 20.5%market -3.4pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
39
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.1pp
P 15.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
40
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 14.2%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.1pp
P 18.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
41
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
 13.4%Fangorn 18.8%market -6.1pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
42
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 17.9%Fangorn 23.6%market -6.5pp
P 19.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books
43
Victor Scott II STL
IN
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 0.0%Fangorn 7.7%market -8.0pp
P 7.7
F 0.0
V 0.0
7.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3
 11.4%Fangorn 22.7%market -12.1pp
P 14.8
F 11.4
V 11.4
3.4pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books

Data context

778 sample flags
Status1565roster/transaction rows
Lineups108confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.