Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-01

Alec Burleson

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs TEXJacob deGrom
Sample1624.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 18.9% Market 13.3% Gap +5.1pp
DraftKings 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.3
F 78.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 77.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 58.3% Market 74.7% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F 2.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +8.7pp
FanDuel 8000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
56 +27 vs proj
Barrel%7.3%
77 +17 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
Exit velocity91.1
85
Hard-hit%47.4%
83 +21 vs proj
K%15.8%
84
xBA0.347
72
xSLG0.634
81
xwOBA0.376
91 +17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs0.1 · 1B
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · 1B
68
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
13
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.2% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.6% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions64.6% · rebadged research
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.314 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherJacob deGrom
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)