Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-01

Juan Soto

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupNYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock
Sample4011.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 19.8% Market 24.1% Gap -4.3pp
BetMGM 315 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.2%
87
Barrel%13.2%
99
Bat speed69.8
52
Exit velocity92.6
93
Hard-hit%50.7%
92
K%14.8%
87
xBA0.348
73
xSLG0.771
97
xwOBA0.422
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.8 · LF
11
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
45
Arm Runs-1.0 · LF
Limited
Range Runs0.2 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · LF
47
Sprint Speed25.9 · LF
18
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.8% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Correct Decisions70.0% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
validated
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Limited

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.374 to 0.470
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherEmerson Hancock
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)