Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-01

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs STLMichael McGreevy
Sample566.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 15.5% Market 11.0% Gap +4.2pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.2
F 65.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 53.2% Market 65.1% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F 2.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +6.0pp
FanDuel 12500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.7%
91 +34 vs proj
Barrel%4.7%
46
Bat speed68.5
33
Exit velocity86.1
24
Hard-hit%38.5%
43
K%23.2%
41
xBA0.273
13
xSLG0.472
37
xwOBA0.302
41 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
37
Arm Strength90.7 · CF
32
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
98
Range Runs5.4 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.3 · CF
95
Bolts11.0 · CF
74
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
93
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.3% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Correct Decisions70.7% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.354 · validated
validated
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Limited

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherMichael McGreevy
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)