Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-01

William Contreras

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample2415.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 14.8% Market 12.6% Gap +1.8pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F 78.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V 77.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 61.9% Market 76.2% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 155 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F 2.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.6%
45 -25 vs proj
Barrel%7.0%
74
Bat speed71.6
76
Exit velocity91.2
86
Hard-hit%46.0%
75
K%13.2%
91 +22 vs proj
xBA0.332
59
xSLG0.510
50
xwOBA0.342
76
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.3 · C
36
Catcher Throwing3.5 · C
100
Framing Runs-1.7 · C
22
Pop Time1.9 · C
68
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.1 · C
7
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.387
RegressionNegative · -0.048
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)