Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

AZ at SD

Clarke, Taylor vs Buehler, Walker · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean AZ or SD?

Mithrandir leans AZ over SD.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

56.8% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs AZ 4.5 · SD 4.4 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.0 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line AZ -1.5 · SD 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.9% · YRFI 51.1% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 7 Available in 7 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

7 matched rows

Strikeouts · SD vs AZ Walker Buehler Under 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P57.3% F-- V51.2%

Model 57.3% Market 47.1% Model-market gap +10.2 pts

Open board

Home runs · AZ vs SD Geraldo Perdomo Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.4% F15.3% V10.6%

Model 13.8% Market 9.3% Model-market gap +4.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs SD Nolan Arenado Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.5% F-- V--

Model 51.5% Market 33.3% Provisional model gap +18.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs SD Geraldo Perdomo Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.5% F-- V--

Model 35.5% Market 18.7% Provisional model gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs SD Gabriel Moreno Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.1% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 46.2% Provisional model gap +3.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs SD Corbin Carroll Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.2% F-- V--

Model 50.2% Market 47.8% Provisional model gap +2.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · AZ vs SD Ketel Marte Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.2% F-- V--

Model 50.2% Market 48.3% Provisional model gap +1.9 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.