Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Gabriel Moreno

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 9 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample1462.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 50.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 47.0% Market 46.2% Gap +3.9pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
67
Exit velocity89.4
70
Hard-hit%42.5%
70
xBA0.346
81
xSLG0.541
63
xwOBA0.363
95 +15 vs proj
BB%11.3%
83 +22 vs proj
Bat speed70.0
55
K%14.5%
90 +20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.2 · C
88
Catcher Throwing2.1 · C
85
Framing Runs5.3 · C
90
Pop Time1.9 · C
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · C
34
SB Success Rate80.0% · C
48
Sprint Speed26.2 · C
21
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.6%
21
Correct Decisions62.3%
17
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.306
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.402
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.039
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)