Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Nolan Arenado

AZ · Hitter · bats R · age 35
IN · 8 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupAZ vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample7334.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 2.5
P 51.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 32.6% Market 33.3% Gap +18.2pp
BetMGM 200 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.0%
53 +23 vs proj
Exit velocity85.1
20
Hard-hit%31.4%
21
xBA0.297
26
xSLG0.473
41
xwOBA0.299
46
BB%8.6%
52 +21 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
43
K%19.7%
69 -19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.8 · 3B
28
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
85
Range Runs2.1 · 3B
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.9 · 3B
8
Sprint Speed25.1 · 3B
6
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.9%
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8%
19
Correct Decisions62.2%
17
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · small sample
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.398
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.347
RegressionNegative · -0.066
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)