Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-07-01

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-07-01

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 2

Parlay Overlay 1

← 2026-07-02 2026-06-19 →

Lane Health 2026-07-17

Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable

Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable

Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs NYM | +740

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 31.0%

Market Gap 19.1%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 8 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Gavin Sheets

SD vs CHC | vs Colin Rea

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 17.1%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.9% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Colin Rea, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +615 31.1% 17.1% Premium Zone

BetMGM +610 31.1% 17.0% Premium Zone

DraftKings +610 31.1% 17.0% Premium Zone

Romy Gonzalez

BOS vs WSH | vs Brad Lord

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 18.3%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 30.1% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Premium Zone look against Brad Lord, with batting 5 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +685 31.1% 18.3% Premium Zone

FanDuel +685 31.1% 18.3% Premium Zone

BetMGM +680 31.1% 18.3% Premium Zone

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs NYM | vs Freddy Peralta

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 31.0%

Market Gap 19.1%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.7% Adjusted from 31.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Premium Zone look against Freddy Peralta, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +740 31.0% 19.1% Premium Zone

FanDuel +740 31.0% 19.1% Premium Zone

BetMGM +735 31.0% 19.0% Premium Zone

Michael Busch

CHC vs SD | vs Walker Buehler

#10

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Parlay Candidate

1 line option 1 book Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 6.0%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.5% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.5% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Strong Zone look against Walker Buehler, with batting 3 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +400 26.0% 6.0% Strong Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs NYM | vs Freddy Peralta

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 31.0%

Market Gap 19.1%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.7% Adjusted from 31.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Premium Zone look against Freddy Peralta, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +740 31.0% 19.1% Premium Zone

FanDuel +740 31.0% 19.1% Premium Zone

BetMGM +735 31.0% 19.0% Premium Zone

Romy Gonzalez

BOS vs WSH | vs Brad Lord

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 18.3%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 30.1% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

High Confidence

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Premium Zone look against Brad Lord, with batting 5 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +685 31.1% 18.3% Premium Zone

FanDuel +685 31.1% 18.3% Premium Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Gavin Sheets

SD vs CHC | vs Colin Rea

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 17.1%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.9% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Colin Rea, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +615 31.1% 17.1% Premium Zone

BetMGM +610 31.1% 17.0% Premium Zone

DraftKings +610 31.1% 17.0% Premium Zone

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs KC | vs Seth Lugo

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.8%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Seth Lugo, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +560 26.0% 10.8% Strong Zone

DraftKings +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

Parlay 1

Neutral

Gavin Sheets SD vs CHC | +615 31.1% | Premium Zone

Romy Gonzalez BOS vs WSH | +685 31.1% | Premium Zone

Joint Prob 9.7%

Joint Gap 7.9%

Structure Distinct Games