{
  "date": "2026-07-01",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-01T18:40:17.797449",
  "artifact_type": "hr_parlay_overlay",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-01/home_run_edges_2026-07-01.json",
  "summary": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "selection_logic": "best_distinct_2_leg_hr_parlays_from_filtered_pool",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.2,
      "min_edge": 0.05,
      "max_odds": 700.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 7,
      "max_pool": 6
    }
  },
  "parlays": [
    {
      "legs": [
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Gavin Sheets",
          "hitter_id": 657757,
          "team_abbr": "SD",
          "opponent_abbr": "CHC",
          "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea",
          "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
          "over_odds": 615,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.279,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2435,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.89,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2435,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2987,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.2973,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2568,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3093,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2886,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "High",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2973,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Elite Damage",
          "damage_score": 3,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
          "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.",
          "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
          "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
          "suppression_score": 8,
          "suppression_reason_count": 1,
          "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
          "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST",
          "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust",
          "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1709,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1169,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1709,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.1036,
          "play_tier": "Strong",
          "lineup_slot": 2,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": true,
          "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
        },
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez",
          "hitter_id": 663853,
          "team_abbr": "BOS",
          "opponent_abbr": "WSH",
          "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord",
          "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
          "over_odds": 685,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.2562,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.226,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.24,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.226,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3006,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.2939,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2417,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3014,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.279,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2939,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Strong Damage",
          "damage_score": 2,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5",
          "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.",
          "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
          "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
          "suppression_score": 8,
          "suppression_reason_count": 1,
          "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
          "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
          "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
          "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1834,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1143,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1834,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0986,
          "play_tier": "Strong",
          "lineup_slot": 5,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": true,
          "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
        }
      ],
      "joint_probability": 0.0966,
      "joint_implied_probability": 0.0178,
      "joint_edge": 0.0788,
      "correlation_tag": "Neutral",
      "same_game_dependency": false,
      "rank": 1
    }
  ]
}