{ "date": "2026-07-01", "generated_at": "2026-07-01T18:40:17.797117", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-01/home_run_edges_2026-07-01.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Gavin Sheets", "hitter_id": 657757, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 615, "expected_home_runs": 0.279, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2435, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2435, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2987, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2973, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2886, 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0.279, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2435, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2435, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2987, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2973, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2886, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2973, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a 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"hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Romy Gonzalez", "hitter_id": 663853, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Brad Lord", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 685, "expected_home_runs": 0.2562, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.226, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.226, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.3006, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2939, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2417, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.279, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2939, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1834, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1143, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1834, "hr_confidence_bucket": 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"Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2939, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong 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0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.279, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2939, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1826, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1135, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1826, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0978, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 5, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 740, "expected_home_runs": 0.2299, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3097, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2054, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2972, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3097, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2889, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2979, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2747, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2889, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1907, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1302, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1907, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0864, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 740, "expected_home_runs": 0.2299, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3097, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2054, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2972, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3097, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2889, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2979, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2747, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2889, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1907, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1302, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1907, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0864, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 735, "expected_home_runs": 0.2299, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3097, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2054, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2972, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3097, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2889, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2979, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2747, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2889, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1899, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1294, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1899, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0856, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Michael Busch", "hitter_id": 683737, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 400, "expected_home_runs": 0.273, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2389, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2547, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2555, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2651, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2663, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2555, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0597, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0651, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0597, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0389, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" } ] }