{ "date": "2026-07-01", "generated_at": "2026-07-01T18:40:17.797428", "artifact_type": "hr_conviction_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-01/home_run_edges_2026-07-01.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "filtered_high_conviction_singles", "filters": { "min_probability": 0.25, "min_edge": 0.08, "max_odds": 650.0, "max_lineup_slot": 6 } }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Gavin Sheets", "hitter_id": 657757, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 615, "expected_home_runs": 0.279, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2435, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2435, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2987, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2973, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2886, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2973, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1709, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1169, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1709, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.1036, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Gavin Sheets", "hitter_id": 657757, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 610, "expected_home_runs": 0.279, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2435, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2435, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2987, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2973, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2886, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2973, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.17, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.116, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.17, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.1027, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Gavin Sheets", "hitter_id": 657757, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 610, "expected_home_runs": 0.279, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2435, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2435, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2987, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2973, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2886, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2973, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.17, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.116, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.17, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.1027, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 560, "expected_home_runs": 0.2302, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2056, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2056, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.25, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2489, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2277, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2762, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2495, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2489, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1082, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0762, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1082, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0541, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 550, "expected_home_runs": 0.2302, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2056, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2056, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.25, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2489, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2277, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2762, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2495, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2489, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1059, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0739, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1059, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0518, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }