Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-04-02

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-04-02

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 2

Parlay Overlay 1

← 2026-04-03 2026-04-01 →

Lane Health 2026-06-03

Palantir 3465 props Brier 0.123 ECE 0.023 14d stable

Fangorn 3465 props Brier 0.123 ECE 0.012 14d stable

Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs CWS | +960

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 16.5%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 8 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs CWS | vs Sean Burke

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 16.5%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.5% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Sean Burke, with batting 6 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +960 26.0% 16.5% Strong Zone

BetMGM +945 26.0% 16.4% Strong Zone

FanDuel +940 26.0% 16.4% Strong Zone

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR vs CWS | vs Sean Burke

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 9.2%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.4% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Sean Burke, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +495 26.0% 9.2% Strong Zone

BetMGM +490 26.0% 9.0% Strong Zone

DraftKings +490 26.0% 9.0% Strong Zone

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs MIN | vs Taj Bradley

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.4% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Taj Bradley, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs CWS | vs Sean Burke

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 13.2%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Sean Burke, with batting 5 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +680 26.0% 13.2% Strong Zone

FanDuel +680 26.0% 13.2% Strong Zone

BetMGM +675 26.0% 13.1% Strong Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs CWS | vs Sean Burke

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 16.5%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.5% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Sean Burke, with batting 6 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +960 26.0% 16.5% Strong Zone

BetMGM +945 26.0% 16.4% Strong Zone

FanDuel +940 26.0% 16.4% Strong Zone

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs CWS | vs Sean Burke

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 13.2%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Sean Burke, with batting 5 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +680 26.0% 13.2% Strong Zone

FanDuel +680 26.0% 13.2% Strong Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 4 Artifact

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR vs CWS | vs Sean Burke

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 9.2%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.4% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Sean Burke, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +495 26.0% 9.2% Strong Zone

BetMGM +490 26.0% 9.0% Strong Zone

DraftKings +490 26.0% 9.0% Strong Zone

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs MIN | vs Taj Bradley

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.4% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Taj Bradley, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

Parlay 1

Neutral

Vinnie Pasquantino KC vs MIN | +475 26.0% | Strong Zone

Jesús Sánchez TOR vs CWS | +680 26.0% | Strong Zone

Joint Prob 6.7%

Joint Gap 4.5%

Structure Distinct Games