{
  "date": "2026-04-02",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-04T19:31:21.854500",
  "artifact_type": "hr_select_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-02\\home_run_edges_2026-04-02.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge"
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes",
      "hitter_id": 664770,
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 960,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1924,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.175,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2495,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0798,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0498,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2562,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2276,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0795,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1654,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0445,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.094,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1006,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0807,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes",
      "hitter_id": 664770,
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 945,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1924,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.175,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2495,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0798,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0498,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2562,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2276,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0795,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.164,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0459,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0954,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0992,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0793,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes",
      "hitter_id": 664770,
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 940,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1924,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.175,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2495,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0798,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0498,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2562,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2276,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0795,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1635,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0464,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0959,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0987,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0788,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez",
      "hitter_id": 660821,
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 680,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2364,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.66,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2156,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0824,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1546,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.242,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2129,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0819,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Strong Damage",
      "damage_score": 2,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5",
      "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1315,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0264,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1277,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0667,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0823,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez",
      "hitter_id": 660821,
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 680,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2364,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.66,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2156,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0824,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1546,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.242,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2129,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0819,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Strong Damage",
      "damage_score": 2,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5",
      "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1315,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0264,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1277,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0667,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0823,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    }
  ]
}