{
  "date": "2026-04-02",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-04T19:31:21.854500",
  "artifact_type": "hr_conviction_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-02\\home_run_edges_2026-04-02.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 4,
    "selection_logic": "filtered_high_conviction_singles",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.25,
      "min_edge": 0.08,
      "max_odds": 650.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 6
    }
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 495,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2652,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2329,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.67,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2346,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2537,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0863,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1621,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.251,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2222,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0856,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0916,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.006,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1675,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0268,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0648,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 490,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2652,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2329,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.67,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2346,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2537,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0863,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1621,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.251,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2222,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0856,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0902,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0074,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1689,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0254,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0634,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665489,
      "team_abbr": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
      "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 490,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2652,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2329,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.67,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2346,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2537,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0863,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1621,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.251,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2222,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0856,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0902,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0074,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1689,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0254,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0634,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 475,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2245,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2353,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2538,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0864,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1642,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2472,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2182,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0858,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0097,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1732,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.021,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0272,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    }
  ]
}