{
  "date": "2026-04-02",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-04T19:31:21.854500",
  "artifact_type": "hr_parlay_overlay",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-02\\home_run_edges_2026-04-02.json",
  "summary": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "selection_logic": "best_distinct_2_leg_hr_parlays_from_filtered_pool",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.2,
      "min_edge": 0.05,
      "max_odds": 700.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 7,
      "max_pool": 6
    }
  },
  "parlays": [
    {
      "legs": [
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
          "hitter_id": 686469,
          "team_abbr": "KC",
          "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
          "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley",
          "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
          "over_odds": 475,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.2245,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2011,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2353,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2538,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.0864,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1642,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2472,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2182,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0858,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
          "damage_score": 1,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
          "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858,
          "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0097,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1732,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.021,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0272,
          "play_tier": "Lean",
          "lineup_slot": 3,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "neutral"
        },
        {
          "board_type": "hr_parlay_leg",
          "rank": 1,
          "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez",
          "hitter_id": 660821,
          "team_abbr": "TOR",
          "opponent_abbr": "CWS",
          "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke",
          "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
          "over_odds": 680,
          "expected_home_runs": 0.2364,
          "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105,
          "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.66,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2156,
          "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2518,
          "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949,
          "hr_prob_refined": 0.0824,
          "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1546,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.242,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
          "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2129,
          "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
          "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
          "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
          "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
          "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
          "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
          "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0819,
          "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
          "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
          "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
          "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
          "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE",
          "damage_label": "Strong Damage",
          "damage_score": 2,
          "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5",
          "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.",
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1315,
          "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0264,
          "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1277,
          "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0667,
          "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
          "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
          "edge_over": 0.0823,
          "play_tier": "Strong",
          "lineup_slot": 5,
          "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
          "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
        }
      ],
      "joint_probability": 0.0674,
      "joint_implied_probability": 0.0223,
      "joint_edge": 0.0452,
      "correlation_tag": "Neutral",
      "same_game_dependency": false,
      "rank": 1
    }
  ]
}