Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

STL at MIL

Quinn Mathews vs Dustin May · 7:10 PM ET

Scheduled 7:10 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean STL or MIL?

The run projection leans MIL over STL.

Projected runs: STL 4.2, MIL 4.3. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs STL 4.2 · MIL 4.3 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.6 · Market 7.5 model minus market +1.1 runs

Run line STL 1.5 · MIL -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.6% · YRFI 50.4% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 11 Available in 11 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

11 matched rows

Strikeouts · MIL vs STL Dustin May Over 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P62.2% F-- V49.8%

Model 62.2% Market 40.3% Model-market gap +21.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs MIL Alec Burleson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.8% F-- V--

Model 37.8% Market 21.3% Model-market gap +16.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs MIL Pedro Pagés Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.5% F-- V--

Model 50.5% Market 38.5% Model-market gap +12.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs MIL Masyn Winn Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P59.6% F-- V--

Model 46.4% Market 35.1% Model-market gap +11.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs MIL Victor Scott II Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.4% F-- V--

Model 50.4% Market 40.0% Model-market gap +10.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs MIL Jordan Walker Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P19.0% F-- V--

Model 50.2% Market 40.8% Model-market gap +9.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · STL vs MIL Alec Burleson Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.9% F15.3% V13.5%

Model 16.8% Market 13.3% Model-market gap +3.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs MIL Iván Herrera Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.3% F-- V--

Model 50.3% Market 49.4% Model-market gap +0.9 pts

Open board

Hits · STL vs MIL Jordan Walker Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 86.8% Market 73.0% Provisional model gap +13.9 pts

Open board

Hits · STL vs MIL Masyn Winn Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 85.0% Market 77.3% Provisional model gap +7.7 pts

Open board

Hits · STL vs MIL Alec Burleson Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P2.0% F-- V--

Model 68.4% Market 63.6% Provisional model gap +4.8 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Milwaukee win contract 59.5% Bid 59c · ask 60c

St. Louis win contract 40.5% Bid 40c · ask 41c

First inning run: Yes 46.0% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.