Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Jordan Walker

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs MILDustin May
Sample1548.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 19.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.0% Market 40.8% Gap +9.4pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +13.9pp
FanDuel 8000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
95 +26 vs proj
Exit velocity92.8
97
Hard-hit%50.5%
95
xBA0.369
93
xSLG0.650
90
xwOBA0.341
86 +38 vs proj
BB%7.6%
38
Bat speed77.3
100
K%26.3%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · RF
36
Arm Strength102.0 · RF
98
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · RF
2
Range Runs-6.7 · RF
6
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · RF
83
Bolts31.0 · RF
83
SB Success Rate90.0% · RF
80
Sprint Speed29.1 · RF
91
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.8%
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8%
54
Correct Decisions64.4%
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · small sample
23
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357
20
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.025
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)