Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Pedro Pagés

STL · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 8 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs MILDustin May
Sample751.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 28 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 50.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 37.3% Market 38.5% Gap +12.1pp
BetMGM 160 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.7%
20 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity84.7
17
Hard-hit%35.9%
38
xBA0.306
35
xSLG0.464
37
xwOBA0.265
16
BB%5.4%
17
Bat speed70.1
58
K%26.1%
32 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.1 · C
49
Catcher Throwing1.8 · C
80
Framing Runs3.3 · C
80
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
68
Pop Time1.9 · C
78
Range Runs0.1 · C
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.5 · C
10
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.0%
Small sample
Mithrandir Stuff+81
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.316
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.378
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.236 to 0.325
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)