Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-26

Dustin May

MIL · SP · throws R · age 29
Projected starter Opp K 21.6% Neutral
MatchupMIL vs STLopponent
Sample466.667career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts3.5
P 62.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.2% Market -- Gap +21.9pp
FanDuel 134 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
49
ERA4.61
35
BB%7.9%
63
K%22.5%
52 +15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.324
36
Barrel allowed7.3%
52
Fastball velo96.7
84
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
10
Whiff%21.2%
38 +22 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Cutter Stuff+105
85
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Mithrandir Stuff+107
91
Sinker Stuff+108
90
Slider Stuff+106
82
Changeup Stuff+103
Small sample
Curveball Stuff+101
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range16.7% to 26.8%
Opponent K21.6%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)