Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-09-14

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Standard Confidence View Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-09-14

Core 4

Select 3

Conviction 0

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-09-18 2026-09-13 →

Lane Health 2026-09-26

Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

No qualifying play

No Fangorn play cleared the parlay-probability filter today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 7 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Research Compare Mode

Confidence display comparison

Hybrid confidence is the current blended view. Anchored confidence keeps RF as the decision engine while adjusting toward binary-event truth from the logistic classifier.

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs COL | vs Tomoyuki Sugano

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 0.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.7% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Tomoyuki Sugano, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +460 17.9% 0.1% Watch Zone

BetMGM +455 17.9% -0.1% Watch Zone

DraftKings +450 17.9% -0.3% Watch Zone

Brett Baty

NYM vs BAL | vs Brandon Young

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 8

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.0%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.6% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Brandon Young, with batting 8 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +620 17.9% 4.0% Watch Zone

BetMGM +615 17.9% 3.9% Watch Zone

DraftKings +615 17.9% 3.9% Watch Zone

Pavin Smith

AZ vs MIA | vs Sandy Alcantara

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 8

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 3.8%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.7% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Sandy Alcantara, with batting 8 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +610 17.9% 3.8% Watch Zone

BetMGM +605 17.9% 3.7% Watch Zone

DraftKings +605 17.9% 3.7% Watch Zone

Bo Bichette

NYM vs BAL | vs Brandon Young

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.9%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.1% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.9% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Brandon Young, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +670 17.9% 4.9% Watch Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 3 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs MIA | vs Sandy Alcantara

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 4

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 7.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.4% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 17.2% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Sandy Alcantara, with batting 4 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +920 17.2% 7.4% Watch Zone

BetMGM +905 17.2% 7.3% Watch Zone

FanDuel +900 17.2% 7.2% Watch Zone

Jake McCarthy

COL vs SD | vs Casey Mize

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 14.2%

Market Gap 5.3%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 14.1% Adjusted from 14.2% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 14.2% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Casey Mize, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +1020 14.2% 5.3% Watch Zone

Xander Bogaerts

SD vs COL | vs Tomoyuki Sugano

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 7

Calibrated Prob 15.7%

Market Gap 5.2%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.1% Adjusted from 15.7% model read

Risky

Anchored Confidence 15.7% RF-safe adjusted toward 0.0% binary-event truth

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Tomoyuki Sugano, with batting 7 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +850 15.7% 5.2% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 0 Artifact

No conviction Fangorn picks were saved for this slate.

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.