{ "date": "2026-09-14", "generated_at": "2026-09-14T23:49:55.482084", "artifact_type": "hr_select_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-09-14/home_run_edges_2026-09-14.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 920, "expected_home_runs": 0.1464, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1362, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1362, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1635, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1649, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1722, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1853, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1613, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1649, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0741, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0742, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0741, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0382, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 905, "expected_home_runs": 0.1464, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1362, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1362, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1635, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1649, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1722, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1853, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1613, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1649, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0726, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0727, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0726, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0367, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 900, "expected_home_runs": 0.1464, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1362, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1362, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1635, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1649, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1722, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1853, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1613, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1649, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0721, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0722, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0721, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0362, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake McCarthy", "hitter_id": 664983, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.1482, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1377, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1377, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1408, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1413, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1529, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1417, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1413, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0529, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0636, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0529, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0484, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Xander Bogaerts", "hitter_id": 593428, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 850, "expected_home_runs": 0.1899, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.173, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.173, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1611, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1605, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1599, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1754, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1533, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1605, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.052, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0546, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.052, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0677, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 7, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" } ] }