{ "date": "2026-09-14", "generated_at": "2026-09-14T23:49:55.482051", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-09-14/home_run_edges_2026-09-14.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 460, "expected_home_runs": 0.2503, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2214, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2214, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1876, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2259, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2331, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2041, 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trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0011, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0457, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0011, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0412, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 450, "expected_home_runs": 0.2503, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2214, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2214, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1876, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2259, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2331, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2041, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1876, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist 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"board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "hitter_id": 683146, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 620, "expected_home_runs": 0.1868, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1704, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1704, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1765, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1976, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2222, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1936, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1774, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0402, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0587, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0402, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0315, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 8, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "hitter_id": 683146, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 615, "expected_home_runs": 0.1868, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1704, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.14, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1704, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1765, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1976, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2222, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1936, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1774, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are 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"hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1765, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1976, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2222, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1936, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1774, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0392, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0577, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0392, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0305, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 8, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "hitter_id": 656976, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 610, "expected_home_runs": 0.188, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1714, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.7, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1714, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1768, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1776, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1849, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1859, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1776, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0383, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0441, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0383, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0306, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 8, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "hitter_id": 656976, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 605, "expected_home_runs": 0.188, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1714, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.7, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1714, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1768, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1776, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1849, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1859, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1776, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0373, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0431, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0373, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0296, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 8, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Pavin Smith", "hitter_id": 656976, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 605, "expected_home_runs": 0.188, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1714, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.7, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1714, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1768, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1776, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1849, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1859, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1776, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0373, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0431, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0373, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0296, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 8, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 670, "expected_home_runs": 0.2047, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1851, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1851, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1809, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1803, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1983, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2134, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1855, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1803, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0492, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0684, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0492, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0552, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }