Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-07-06

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-07-06

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 1

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-07-07 2026-07-05 →

Lane Health 2026-07-17

Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable

Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable

Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

James Wood

WSH vs HOU | +485

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 7 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

James Wood

WSH vs HOU | vs Mike Burrows

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Mike Burrows, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

BetMGM +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

DraftKings +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs NYY | vs Cam Schlittler

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 19.6%

Market Gap 6.3%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 19.1% Adjusted from 19.6% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.5% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Cam Schlittler, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +655 19.6% 6.3% Watch Zone

FanDuel +655 19.6% 6.3% Watch Zone

BetMGM +650 19.6% 6.2% Watch Zone

Cj Abrams

WSH vs HOU | vs Mike Burrows

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 3.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.8% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.9% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Mike Burrows, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +590 17.9% 3.4% Watch Zone

BetMGM +585 17.9% 3.3% Watch Zone

DraftKings +585 17.9% 3.3% Watch Zone

Yandy Díaz

TB vs NYY | vs Cam Schlittler

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 3.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.1% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Cam Schlittler, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +575 17.9% 3.1% Watch Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

José Tena

WSH vs HOU | vs Mike Burrows

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 9.2%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.1% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Mike Burrows, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

BetMGM Best +1150 17.2% 9.2% Watch Zone

DraftKings +1150 17.2% 9.2% Watch Zone

FanDuel +1150 17.2% 9.2% Watch Zone

James Wood

WSH vs HOU | vs Mike Burrows

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Mike Burrows, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

DraftKings +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 1 Market Rows 3 Artifact

James Wood

WSH vs HOU | vs Mike Burrows

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 8.9%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.9% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Mike Burrows, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +485 26.0% 8.9% Strong Zone

BetMGM +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

DraftKings +475 26.0% 8.6% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.