{ "date": "2026-07-06", "generated_at": "2026-07-05T23:33:08.650899", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-06/home_run_edges_2026-07-06.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2232, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.249, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2478, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2227, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2181, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2478, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0518, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0888, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0291, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2232, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.249, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 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"prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.249, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2478, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2227, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2181, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2478, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust 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"rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1927, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1753, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1753, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1908, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1957, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1916, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1945, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2371, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.208, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1916, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0632, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.062, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0632, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0428, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1927, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1753, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1753, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1908, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1957, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1916, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1945, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2371, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.208, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1916, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0632, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.062, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0632, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0428, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 650, "expected_home_runs": 0.1927, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1753, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1753, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1908, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1957, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1916, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1945, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2371, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.208, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1916, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0624, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0612, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0624, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.042, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 590, "expected_home_runs": 0.2425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1878, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1864, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2358, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2067, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1864, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0342, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0796, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0342, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0704, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1878, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1864, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2358, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2067, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1864, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0331, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0785, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0331, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0693, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2425, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2153, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1878, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1864, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2358, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2067, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1864, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0331, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0785, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0331, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0693, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 575, "expected_home_runs": 0.2059, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1861, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1861, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1812, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1805, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1923, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2318, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2028, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1805, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.031, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0442, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.031, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.038, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }