Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-04-13

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-04-13

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 0

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-04-14 2026-04-12 →

Lane Health 2026-10-01

Palantir 22104 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.004 14d error falling

Fangorn 22104 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.004 14d error falling

Valinor 16416 props Brier 0.115 ECE 0.002 14d error falling

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

No qualifying play

No Fangorn play cleared the parlay-probability filter today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 6 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Iván Herrera

STL vs CLE | vs Gavin Williams

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 19.6%

Market Gap 6.7%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 19.9% Adjusted from 19.6% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Gavin Williams, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +675 19.6% 6.7% Watch Zone

FanDuel +675 19.6% 6.7% Watch Zone

BetMGM +670 19.6% 6.6% Watch Zone

Alec Burleson

STL vs CLE | vs Gavin Williams

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 19.6%

Market Gap 5.9%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 20.4% Adjusted from 19.6% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Gavin Williams, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +630 19.6% 5.9% Watch Zone

BetMGM +625 19.6% 5.8% Watch Zone

DraftKings +625 19.6% 5.8% Watch Zone

Zach Neto

LAA vs NYY | vs Will Warren

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 1.0%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.9% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Will Warren, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +490 17.9% 1.0% Watch Zone

BetMGM +485 17.9% 0.8% Watch Zone

DraftKings +480 17.9% 0.7% Watch Zone

Roman Anthony

BOS vs MIN | vs Bailey Ober

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 5.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.1% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Bailey Ober, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +700 17.9% 5.4% Watch Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Jakob Marsee

MIA vs ATL | vs Grant Holmes

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 17.2%

Market Gap 6.7%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 16.6% Adjusted from 17.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 3.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Grant Holmes, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +855 17.2% 6.7% Watch Zone

BetMGM +845 17.2% 6.6% Watch Zone

FanDuel +845 17.2% 6.6% Watch Zone

Iván Herrera

STL vs CLE | vs Gavin Williams

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 19.6%

Market Gap 6.7%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 19.9% Adjusted from 19.6% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Moderate Disagreement 5.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Moderate Disagreement Reduced Exposure

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Gavin Williams, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +675 19.6% 6.7% Watch Zone

FanDuel +675 19.6% 6.7% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 0 Artifact

No conviction Fangorn picks were saved for this slate.

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.