{
  "date": "2026-04-13",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-13T08:03:08.774446",
  "artifact_type": "hr_select_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-04-13\\home_run_edges_2026-04-13.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge"
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee",
      "hitter_id": 805300,
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 855,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1837,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1678,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.147,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1661,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0554,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.039,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1812,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.158,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0551,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0674,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0657,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1044,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0245,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0631,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera",
      "hitter_id": 671056,
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 675,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1988,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1803,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2111,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1994,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1468,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0718,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1802,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2402,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2111,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0714,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 28,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0667,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0512,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1286,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0513,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera",
      "hitter_id": 671056,
      "team_abbr": "STL",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 675,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1988,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1803,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.0,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2111,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1994,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1468,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0718,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1802,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2402,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2111,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0714,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 28,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0667,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0512,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1286,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0513,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee",
      "hitter_id": 805300,
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 845,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1837,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1678,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.147,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1661,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0554,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.039,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1812,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.158,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0551,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0663,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0668,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1055,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0234,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.062,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee",
      "hitter_id": 805300,
      "team_abbr": "MIA",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 845,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1837,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1678,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.147,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1661,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0554,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.039,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1812,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.158,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0551,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0663,
      "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0668,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1055,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0234,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.062,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    }
  ]
}