Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
CLE 11, KC 5. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
CLE 11, KC 5
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate
11 – 5final score
16total runs
59% → 0%KC win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
Bibee, Tanner vs Wacha, Michael · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
CLE 41.4%KC 58.6%
3.97 – 4.53mean score
8.5mean total
56%NRFI
9.9%extra innings
4.98 / 4.84starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
CLE (gold) vs KC (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
CLE per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kwan, Steven | 4.727 | 1.127 | 0.043 | 1.417 | 0.519 | 0.6 | 0.264 |
| Ramírez, José | 4.615 | 1.024 | 0.131 | 1.646 | 0.414 | 0.727 | 0.452 |
| DeLauter, Chase | 4.512 | 1.144 | 0.132 | 1.819 | 0.391 | 0.773 | 0.531 |
| Adell, Jo | 4.409 | 0.989 | 0.138 | 1.636 | 0.217 | 1.145 | 0.538 |
| Bazzana, Travis | 4.299 | 0.941 | 0.127 | 1.543 | 0.39 | 0.967 | 0.484 |
| Lowe, Nathaniel | 4.198 | 0.962 | 0.149 | 1.648 | 0.32 | 1.023 | 0.495 |
| Martínez, Angel | 4.094 | 1.009 | 0.172 | 1.799 | 0.17 | 0.951 | 0.527 |
| Bailey, Patrick | 3.973 | 0.78 | 0.094 | 1.193 | 0.299 | 1.041 | 0.322 |
| Rocchio, Brayan | 3.852 | 0.893 | 0.102 | 1.377 | 0.242 | 0.639 | 0.358 |
Projected batting lines
KC per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jensen, Carter | 4.596 | 1.079 | 0.205 | 1.988 | 0.422 | 1.349 | 0.536 |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | 4.476 | 1.249 | 0.14 | 1.996 | 0.406 | 0.878 | 0.538 |
| Caglianone, Jac | 4.374 | 1.235 | 0.186 | 2.119 | 0.249 | 1.214 | 0.688 |
| Perez, Salvador | 4.269 | 1.063 | 0.172 | 1.796 | 0.195 | 0.89 | 0.602 |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | 4.163 | 1.029 | 0.143 | 1.681 | 0.368 | 0.749 | 0.489 |
| Massey, Michael | 4.061 | 1.117 | 0.13 | 1.761 | 0.213 | 0.783 | 0.469 |
| Rave, John | 3.951 | 0.954 | 0.139 | 1.608 | 0.317 | 0.987 | 0.469 |
| Rojas, Josh | 3.84 | 0.948 | 0.093 | 1.406 | 0.247 | 0.755 | 0.423 |
| Collins, Isaac | 3.715 | 0.786 | 0.054 | 1.099 | 0.357 | 0.925 | 0.319 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Kwan, Steven vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Ramírez, José vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
DeLauter, Chase vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Jensen, Carter vs Bibee, Tanner: K
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Bibee, Tanner: K
Caglianone, Jac vs Bibee, Tanner: 2B
Perez, Salvador vs Bibee, Tanner: 2B +1 run (0-1)
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Adell, Jo vs Wacha, Michael: K
Bazzana, Travis vs Wacha, Michael: HR +1 run (1-1)
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Martínez, Angel vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Massey, Michael vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
Rave, John vs Bibee, Tanner: K
Rojas, Josh vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
— Top 3 —
Bailey, Patrick vs Wacha, Michael: K
Rocchio, Brayan vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Kwan, Steven vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Collins, Isaac vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
Jensen, Carter vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Bibee, Tanner: 1B
Caglianone, Jac vs Bibee, Tanner: K
— Top 4 —
Ramírez, José vs Wacha, Michael: 1B
DeLauter, Chase vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Adell, Jo vs Wacha, Michael: 1B
Bazzana, Travis vs Wacha, Michael: K
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Perez, Salvador vs Bibee, Tanner: 2B
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
Massey, Michael vs Bibee, Tanner: 1B +1 run (1-2)
Rave, John vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Martínez, Angel vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Bailey, Patrick vs Wacha, Michael: OUT AIR
Rocchio, Brayan vs Wacha, Michael: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Rojas, Josh vs Bibee, Tanner: K
Collins, Isaac vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
Jensen, Carter vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Kwan, Steven vs Wacha, Michael: 1B
Ramírez, José vs Wacha, Michael: K
DeLauter, Chase vs Wacha, Michael: BB
Adell, Jo vs Wacha, Michael: BB
Bazzana, Travis vs Wacha, Michael: HR +4 runs (5-2)
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Strahm, Matt: OUT AIR
Martínez, Angel vs Strahm, Matt: K
— Bottom 6 —
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Bibee, Tanner: 1B
Caglianone, Jac vs Bibee, Tanner: 2B +1 run (5-3)
Perez, Salvador vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
Massey, Michael vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Bailey, Patrick vs Strahm, Matt: OUT GB
Rocchio, Brayan vs Strahm, Matt: K
Kwan, Steven vs Gose, Anthony: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Rave, John vs Bibee, Tanner: OUT GB
Rojas, Josh vs Bibee, Tanner: 1B
Collins, Isaac vs Allard, Kolby: OUT AIR
Jensen, Carter vs Allard, Kolby: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Ramírez, José vs Gose, Anthony: OUT AIR
DeLauter, Chase vs Gose, Anthony: OUT AIR
Adell, Jo vs Gose, Anthony: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Allard, Kolby: OUT AIR
Caglianone, Jac vs Allard, Kolby: 1B
Perez, Salvador vs Allard, Kolby: 1B
Pasquantino, Vinnie vs Brogdon, Connor: K
Massey, Michael vs Brogdon, Connor: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Bazzana, Travis vs Gose, Anthony: K
Lowe, Nathaniel vs Gose, Anthony: K
Martínez, Angel vs Falter, Bailey: 1B
Bailey, Patrick vs Falter, Bailey: OUT AIR
— Bottom 9 —
Rave, John vs Brogdon, Connor: OUT GB
Rojas, Josh vs Brogdon, Connor: 1B
Collins, Isaac vs Brogdon, Connor: K
Jensen, Carter vs Smith, Cade: 1B
Witt Jr., Bobby vs Smith, Cade: OUT AIR